Boom della capacità siderurgica cinese

Nota: a proposito della tesi che crescita Cina è un bluff
di carte.

Tesi   Nicholas Lardy
(Institute for International Economics)

Christmas (IISI, Istituto int’le industria siderurgica):

  • 2004 Cina ha aggiunto altri 50 milioni ton
    capacità produttiva acciaio
       (= circa
    2 volte il totale italiano –ndr)
  • 2005 aggiunge ancora di più,
    salendo a 400 m t = 4 volte USA = 2 volte UE = consumo cinese previsto
    per 2015 = 40% di consumi mondiali oggi..
  • Produttori acciaio paventano grande
    sovrapproduzione, caduta prezzi.Tentativi governo cinese di
    mettere ordine nella crescita concentrando il settore sono finora falliti
    per resistenze governi provinciali che favoriscono propri gruppi
  • Tentativi WTO di ridurre eccessi di
    capacità tagliando sussidi, falliti, per divergenze interessi tra
    produttori (e relativi Stati).
  • Questi sono anni d’oro per industria
    acciaio, per alta domanda indotta da forte espansione: previste vacche grasse
    anche 2006.
  • MA “rischi” per sovracapacità, e perché 3
    grandi gruppi minerari
    (Companhia Vale do Rio Doce – CVRD, Brasile, Rio
    Tinto e BHP Billiton
    –entrambe GB) monopolizzano il 70%
    dell’export di minerale di ferro, e stanno attuando politica monopolistica di
    rialzo dei prezzi [+70% alcuni mesi fa: a proposito dello strapotere delle
    multinazionali americane… ndr
  • Grandi gruppi siderurgici
    rinunciano per ora a deferirle a organismi internazionali per pratiche
    monopolistiche, e si muovono per acquisire il controllo diretto delle riserve
    minerarie (Mittal – passaporto NL ma imprenditore indiano sta puntando
    su miniere in Liberia).Domanda mondiale acciaio
    2005 +3% a 998 mt; 2006 previsto +4-5% a 1040 mt.

Industry Group Fears

Could Hurt Prices

Growth in Demand



October 4,
2005; Page A6

World steel industry leaders are worried that mounting overcapacity in China
could push down steel prices at some point
, despite continued steady demand
growth for their products world-wide.

coming years, there will be massive, massive excess capacity" in China,
said Nicholas Lardy, an expert on China and a senior fellow at the Institute
for International Economics
in Washington, in a speech to a group of steel
industry executives at the International Iron and Steel Institute annual
meeting, which is being held in South Korea this week.

added about 50 million metric tons of steelmaking capacity in 2004
and will add more than that in
2005, taking that country’s annual steelmaking capacity to roughly 400 million
, according to Mr. Lardy. That is enough to meet the country’s annual
demand until 2015, he said. Mr. Lardy said government efforts in China to consolidate
steel capacity and limit expansion could take longer than expected
, largely
because of resistance from Chinese provincial governments that seek to
foster local steelmakers.

The Chinese buildup comes at a time when
producers have stumbled in efforts to curb capacity growth elsewhere in the
world by cutting back on subsidies paid by governments. Talks at the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris aimed at ending
state subsidies have fallen apart
as trade representatives couldn’t agree
upon how to implement changes. "These [talks] are not likely to restart in
the near future," said Ian Christmas, secretary general of the
IISI. "We believe it is still a real issue that, at some stage, if we want
a competitive dynamic and open business, we have to address."

In addition
to China, steel companies also are grappling with lofty prices for raw
materials and energy and face growing competition from rival materials such as
plastics, aluminum and cement
in key markets such as automotive and
containers. And yet, the industry is also enjoying one of its strongest
periods of prices and profits as the result of a global commodity boom.

are in a very prosperous industry and we believe the outlook for next year
is very positive,"
said Mr. Christmas. "We are not saying it is
all gloom and doom. We are saying there are risks and dangers going

Christmas criticized the world’s three largest iron ore companies
Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, or CVRD, Rio Tinto and
BHP Billiton
for having a natural monopoly with 70% market share for
iron ore shipped across the oceans
. Steelmakers use iron ore as an
ingredient to melt in their furnaces, mixing it with other materials, to create

current market behavior could be a threat to the long-term competitive
position of steel
," said Mr. Christmas. He and other executives said
the organization doesn’t plan to raise anticompetitive issues against the iron
ore industry at international trade bodies. Instead, he said, steel
companies and others are seeking to buy up iron ore mines and bring more iron
ore into supply
. Mittal Steel Co. of the Netherlands, for example, is
pursuing iron ore mines in Liberia

estimates steel demand in 2005 stands at 998 million metric tons, up 3%
from 2004. It expects demand to grow even more in 2006 with an
estimated 1.04 billion tons consumed, up 4% or 5% from 2005.

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