Mo, rapporti potenza, Usa, Cina
Il giornale tedesco “Der Spiegel” invita la Cina ad assumersi le responsabilità di potenza mondiale in Medio Oriente. Nessun giornale in lingua inglese ne ha parlato.
– Mentre l’interesse degli Usa al Medio Oriente va diminuendo dato che essi stanno per divenire autosufficienti dal punto di vista energetico, aumenta quello della Cina, divenuta il maggior importatore di petrolio dal Medio Oriente. Questo modifica radicalmente il suo ruolo geo-strategico in Medio Oriente.
– Le grandi potenze hanno investito denaro e mezzi militari per assicurare la stabilità dell’area, senza parlare delle guerre americane. Fino a quando l’America sosterrà ancora questi costi?
– Quando comincerà la Cina a investire denaro e capitale politico per la stabilità del Medio Oriente, a cui essa ha molto interesse?
– Finora In politica estera la Cina ha seguito finora un principio intelligente e poco costoso: nascondi la tua forza e aspetta (Den Xiaoping), ma al tempo non era ancora una potenza mondiale, molto ricca.
– Pechino, in quanto maggior cliente dei paesi che stanno alimentando il conflitto siriano, può usare apertamente il suo crescente peso politico, ormai alla pari con quello americano nei confronti di Iran e Arabia Saudita.
– Come la Germania riunificata deve tradurre il suo peso economico in peso politico.
– Nel Pacifico, in Africa e Centro Asia la Cina mostra già i muscoli, lo farà anche in Medio Oriente dove il rischio è maggiore.
I commentatori americani hanno sempre considerato la Cina come guastatrice, fornitrice di tecnologia per l’arma nucleare al Pakistan, di missili balistici all’Iran, etc.
– In realtà la Cina è la potenza che più ha da perdere dall’instabilità dal centro Asia al Mediterraneo.
– L’Iran (NYT, 30 sett.) è divenuto ostaggio dei paesi che traggono beneficio dalle sanzioni ad esso imposte, in particolare dalla Cina; i suoi gruppi l’hanno aiutato a evitare le sanzioni ma ad alto prezzo:
– un economista iraniano: la Cina ha monopolizzato il commercio dell’Iran, costretto a importare le merci cinesi; i cinesi distruggono la produzione locale e non portano a termine i progetti per gas e petrolio.
– Numerosi i punti di conflitto Cina-Iran, su cui la Cina può esercitare pressione; tra questi la questione del Belucistan, il Sistan-Baluchistan regione ne S-E iraniano al confine con il Pakistan, dove operano ribelli sunniti, in particolare il gruppo Harakat Ansar Iran (HAI).
– L’Iran si trova tra due paesi sunniti, Turchia e Pakistan, molto dipendenti dai finanziamenti sauditi, e in buone relazioni con la Cina.
– La Turchia è un terminal della “Nuova via della seta”, una rete di strade, ferrovie e oleodotti che la Cina propone di costruire in Centro Asia. L’accordo della Turchia, ancora in discussione, di acquistare un sistema di difesa area cinese è una rivoluzione nelle relazioni turco-cinesi, motivata dalla promessa cinese di trasferire importante tecnologia per consentire alla Turchia la costruzione dei sistemi di armi.
– La Cina è anche in buone relazioni con Israele, alla cui maggiore università tecnica, un magnate di Hong Kong ha offerto una sovvenzione di $130 mn. per costruirne una succursale in Cina, altri $147 mn. verranno offerti dai governi locali.
La Cina grande importatrice di gas e petrolio, torna a vantaggio anche dell’industria automobilistica tedesca, che possono esportare nel mercato cinese.
– English-language media completely ignored a noteworthy statement that led Der Spiegel’s German-language website October 12, a call for China to "take on responsibility as a world power" in the Middle East. Penned by Bernhard Zand, the German news organization’s Beijing correspondent, it is terse and to the point: now that China imports more oil from the Middle East than any other country in the world, it must answer for the region’s security. "America’s interest in the Middle East diminishes day by day" as it heads towards energy self-sufficiency, wrote Zand, adding:
China’s interest in a peaceful Middle East is enormous, by contrast. Beijing is not only the biggest customer of precisely those oil powers who presently are fanning the flames of conflict in Syria; as a VIP customer, Beijing has growing political influence, which it should use openly. The word of the Chinese foreign minister has just as much weight in Tehran and Riyadh as that of his American counterpart.
– China’s situation, Zand continues, is rather like Germany’s after reunification: a state whose economic power is growing will eventually be asked what it puts on the table politically. He concludes:
The time when American could be counted on to secure Beijing’s supply lines soon will come to an end – America’s budget deficit will take care of that by itself. Whoever wants to be a world power must take on responsibilities.
I have no idea how China envisions its future role in the Middle East. Americans will learn the intentions of the powers who gradually fill the vacuum left by Washington’s withdrawal from the world "well after the fact, if ever", as I wrote on September 16 (See US plays Monopoly, Russia plays chess, Asia Times Online). That is why I have retired from foreign policy analysis. It is helpful, though, to take note of what the rest of the world is saying, particularly when not a single English-language source made reference to it. Der Spiegel’s public call for China to assume a leading geopolitical role in the Middle East, though, did not appear out of context.
– American commentators have regarded China as a spoiler, the source of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons technology, Iran’s ballistic missiles, and other alarming instances of proliferation. It is worth considering a radically different view of China’s interests in the lands between the Himalayas and the Mediterranean: no world power has more to lose from instability than does China.
– Iran’s nuclear weapons program poses the greatest risk to the region, and China has been viewed as uncooperative in the extreme by Western diplomats trying to tighten the economic screws on Tehran. Chinese companies, moreover, have helped Iran bypass trade sanctions, but at great cost, and with a complex result.
– The New York Times on September 30 profiled the problems of Iran’s economy under the sanctions, and took note of the country’s dependence on China:
One economist, Mohammad Sadegh Jahansefat, said the government had been taken hostage by countries benefiting from the sanctions – particularly China, which he called the worst business partner Iran had ever had.
– "China has monopolized our trade – we are subsidizing their goods, which we are forced to import," he said, adding of its work in the energy industry, "They destroy local production and leave oil and gas projects unfinished so that no one can work with them." [1]
– China’s capacity to exert pressure on the Iranian regime is considerable. Apart from its interest in avoiding nuclear proliferation in the Persian Gulf, China has a number of points of conflict with Iran, well summarized in an October 17 survey by Zachary Keck in The Diplomat. [2] The one that should keep Tehran on its toes is the Islamic Republic’s border with Pakistan. Iran announced October 26 that it had hanged 16 alleged Sunni rebels in Baluchistan province on the Pakistani border, the latest in a long series of violent incidents.
– "With a population of 170 million, Pakistan has 20 million men of military age, as many as Iran and Turkey combined; by 2035 it will have half again as many," I observed in 2009 (see Hedgehogs and flamingos in Tehran, Asia Times Online, June 16, 2009). It also has nuclear weapons.
– Iran sits between two Sunni powers -Turkey and Pakistan – that depend to a great extent on Saudi financing, and that also have excellent relations with China.
– Turkey’s still-disputed agreement to buy a Chinese air defense system represented a revolution in Chinese-Turkish relations, motivated by a Chinese promise to transfer the whole package of relevant technology to Turkey and to help the Turks to manufacture the systems, a more generous offer than ever Ankara got from the West. Turkey is the logical terminus for the "New Silk Road" of road, rail, pipelines and broadband that China has proposed to build in Central Asia.
– China, it might be added, also has excellent relations with Israel, whose premier technical university just was offered a US$130 million grant from Hong Kong magnate Li Ka-shing to fund part of the costs of building a branch in China. Chinese provincial and local governments will contribute another $147 million. The seamless interchange of ideas and personnel between Israel’s military, universities and tech entrepreneurs is a success story in miniature that China hopes to reproduce in scale. As Singapore-based political scientist Michael Raska reports, China’s military modernization envisions the spread of dual-use technologies to private industry.
– Without attributing any geopolitical intention to Beijing, the visible facts make clear that China has the capacity to exercise strategic influence in the Middle East, and it has an unambiguous interest in maintaining stability. What China might choose to do, Washington will learn after the fact, if ever. If China wished to influence Iran, for example, it has considerable means to do so, and a great deal else besides.
1. Iran Staggers as Sanctions Hit Economy, New York Times, September 30, 2013.
2. China and Iran: Destined to Clash?, The Diplomat, October 17, 2013.
Spengler is channeled by David P Goldman. He is Senior Fellow at the London Center for Policy Research and Associate Fellow at the Middle East Forum. His book How Civilizations Die (and why Islam is Dying, Too) was published by Regnery Press in September 2011. A volume of his essays on culture, religion and economics, It’s Not the End of the World – It’s Just the End of You, also appeared that fall, from Van Praag Press.
(Copyright 2013 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
China und der Nahe Osten: Die widerstrebende Weltmacht
Von Bernhard Zand, Peking
– China hat die USA überholt und ist nun größter Importeur von Erdöl aus dem Nahen Osten. Das verändert die geostrategische Rolle der Volksrepublik radikal. Die Regierung in Peking wird Verantwortung als Weltmacht übernehmen müssen.
Öl aus dem Nahen Osten: Schmierstoff für Chinas Wirtschaft Fotos
– Seit ein paar Tagen ist es offiziell: China hat die USA abgelöst und importiert mehr Öl aus den Opec-Staaten als jedes andere Land der Welt. Das ist gut für die Scheichs am Golf und die noch nicht hinweggefegten Regimes in Saudi-Arabien, im Irak und in Iran.
– Es ist auch gut für Deutschlands Autobauer, deren Produkte in China reißenden Absatz finden. Weniger gut ist es für die Chinesen selbst, über deren Städten sich jetzt im Herbst wieder der Smog verdichtet, ein eher unerfreulicher Beweis dafür, wie rund der Motor der chinesischen Wirtschaft immer noch läuft.
– Vor allem aber setzt der Wechsel an der Spitze der Öl-Importeure allmählich einen Grundsatz der Weltpolitik außer Kraft, der fast 60 Jahre lang galt: Der Westen brauchte Öl aus dem Nahen Osten, also sorgte die Supermacht des Westens dafür, dass das Öl sicher fließt. Die Stabilität des Nahen Ostens ist ein teures Gut, die Patrouillenfahrten der US-Flugzeugträger zwischen dem Suez-Kanal, der Straße von Hormus und dem Horn von Afrika haben Milliarden verschlungen – von Amerikas Kriegen in der Region zu schweigen.
– Wie lange wird Amerika diese Kosten noch tragen? Und wann fängt China an, selbst Geld und politisches Kapital in die Stabilität des Nahen Ostens zu investieren? Es sind schließlich vor allem Pekings Energielieferanten und -korridore, um die es künftig geht.
– Peking folgt bislang einem sehr klugen und im Wortsinn billigen außenpolitischen Prinzip. Der Reformer Deng Xiaoping fasste es mit der Sentenz "taoguang yanghui" zusammen, sinngemäß: "Verbirg deine Stärke und warte ab." Diese Doktrin der Zurückhaltung hat dem Reich der Mitte in der Vergangenheit viel Ärger und Geld erspart. Aber damals war China nicht der Krösus, der es heute ist, und nicht die Weltmacht, die es inzwischen sein will.
Bald wird Amerika Pekings Nachschublinien nicht mehr sichern
– Als Moskau und Washington im September über Syrien berieten und der Uno eine gemeinsame Resolution vorlegten, hob Peking im Sicherheitsrat die Hand – mehr nicht. Es war ein Anachronismus, ja eine Groteske der Geopolitik: Russland, selbst ein Ölriese, hat im Nahen Osten keine bedeutenden Interessen mehr – außer den Eindruck zu erwecken, es sei immer noch eine Supermacht. Auch Amerikas Interessen im Nahen Osten schwinden von Tag zu Tag. Mit dem Einsatz der Fracking-Technologie, der Förderung von Schieferöl und -gas sind die USA dabei, selbst zu einem Nettoexporteur von Energie zu werden.
– Chinas Interesse an einem friedlichen Nahen Osten dagegen ist enorm. Peking ist nicht nur der größte Kunde genau jener Ölmächte, die den Konflikt in Syrien zusätzlich schüren – Iran und Saudi-Arabien. Als VIP-Kunde hat Peking dort auch wachsenden politischen Einfluss, den es offen nutzen sollte. Die Worte des chinesischen Außenministers wiegen in Teheran und Riad womöglich bald ebenso schwer wie die seines amerikanischen Kollegen.
– Chinas Lage ist mit der Deutschlands nach der Wiedervereinigung vergleichbar. Ein Staat, dessen wirtschaftliches Gewicht zunimmt, wird irgendwann gefragt, was er politisch auf die Waage bringt.
– Im Pazifik, in Afrika und in Zentralasien zeigt China bereits seine Muskeln. Doch es wird Zeit, dass es das auch dort tut, wo das Risiko am größten ist – im Nahen Osten.
– Die Zeit, in der Amerika Pekings Nachschublinien sichert, geht nämlich bald zu Ende, dafür wird allein Washingtons klammer Haushalt sorgen. Darauf sollte China nicht warten. Wer Weltmacht sein will, muss Verantwortung übernehmen.