– La recente escalation americana è poco più di un cambiamento tattico; Washington sta studiando le possibili reazioni dell’asse russo-iraniano.
– Nuovi scenari minacciano l’equilibrio di potere:
– l’avanzata militare di al-Assad dopo il recente aiuto russo-iraniano, i missili russi forniti ad Assad, l’inedita influenza di Hezbollah sollecitati dall’Iran che ha anche mobilitato alcuni gruppi sciiti iracheni, e incoraggiato gli Houthis dello Yemen a partecipare alla guerra in Siria.
– Tutti fattori che allargano il conflitto, facendolo sfuggire dal controllo dell’Occidente, che vorrebbe farlo continuare il più possibile senza un vincitore, fino a che non riesca a definire un post Assad.
– Il fattore che maggiormente ha contato sul cambio di posizione degli Usa è il crescente peso dei gruppi islamisti radicali da varie nazioni, che fa deviare dal tipo di percorso seguito dalle rivolte in Egitto e Tunisia,
– rendendo la situazione siriana più simile alla Jihad islamica durante l’invasione sovietica dell’Afghanistan.
– Se gli islamisti, che costituiscono la grande maggioranza dei ribelli siriani, vincono militarmente e abbattono il regime alawita o lo riducono territorialmente,
– l’Occidente faticherà a mantenere il controllo sul nuovo Stato.
– L’Egitto dei Fratelli musulmani sa che potrebbe avere un peso, ma finora ha preferito una soluzione politica a un colpo di forza;
– la Siria e Hamas sono carte che il regime egiziano può usare per rafforzarsi all’interno.
– Il “discorso del Cairo” di Morsi è stato un tentativo di utilizzare l’area grigia creata dal recente cambio di tattica Usa, mantenendo lo stesso livello di accordo con Mosca e Teheran;
– Sempre per motivi di stabilizzazione interna, il regime egiziano non può prendere posizione contro l’Iran, che è uno dei suoi maggiori sostenitori.
– A qualche settimana dal rafforzamento dell’intervento di Hezbollah che ha espulso i ribelli dalla città strategica di Qusayr, che segna una cambiamento dei rapporti di forza – in diverse parti della Siria le forze armate del regime stanno vincendo – si sono moltiplicati gli appelli religiosi alla jihad.
– Eruditi religiosi sauditi sunniti stanno conducendo una attiva campagna di predicatori islamici che chiamano musulmani e arabi ad appoggiare i ribelli siriani contro le atrocità delle forze sciite alawite di Assad, sostenute dall’Iran.
– Tra Questi sono scesi in campo:
– l’Imam della Grande Moschea della Mecca, lo sceicco saudita Al-Shoreym, il cui sermone è stato trasmesso da diversi canali della televisione pan-araba; nel passato si era astenuto da posizioni politiche, in obbedienza alla linea del governo di far rimanere fuori dal conflitto politico i luoghi santi di Mecca e Medina.
– lo sceicco saudita Mohammed Al-Erify, in un sermone tenuto da ospite in una moschea del Cairo;
– decine di eruditi islamici, soprattutto del Golfo, si sono riuniti al Cairo per definire i paini per un appello internazionale alla Jihad in Siria.
– Ha partecipato a questa conferenza Ahmed Al Tayeb, il grande sceicco di Al-Azhar, bastione dell’islam sunnita e sede della moschea egiziana più prestigiosa di studi islamici.
– Ha gestito la conferenza l’Unione Internazionale degli eruditi islamici, un organizzazione pan-islamica non governativa.
– Alcuni dei partecipanti hanno poi incontrato il presidente Morsi, che il giorno dopo ha annunciato alcuni passi contro il regime siriano
– A questi appelli si sono aggiunte trasmissioni dei media arabi che presentano testimoni oculari dell’influenza di guerriglieri sciiti provenienti da Iraq, Libano e Iran a sostegno di Assad, e delle atrocità commesse
– Questi appelli giungono mentre gli Usa hanno segnalato la volontà di inviare armi ai ribelli siriani.
– Durante i 10 anni dell’occupazione sovietica dell’Afghanistan (1979-1989) Usa e Arabia Saudita ebbero ruoli simili:
– Washington armò i mujaheddin e i sauditi li finanziarono e fornirono analoghe giustificazioni religiose contro gli sovietici.
Syria: Game of nations
Nader Bakkar, Friday 21 Jun 2013
– Washington’s recent escalations against the Syrian regime represent little more than a tactical shift. The Egyptian regime, meanwhile, has followed suit for its own domestic political purposes
The US position on the Syrian revolution has changed from statements of condemnation to direct action to bring down Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. This may seem to be a drastic change in US policy, but in fact it’s only a change of tactics.
– It is just a move on the international chess board, as Washington is still hesitant and studying the possible reactions of the Russian-Iranian axis. Of course, the imposition of a no-fly zone is huge, but it is still too early to speak of a "drastic change" in the US position.
– Maybe it represents an attempt to diminish Al-Assad’s military progress after recent Russian-Iranian support. Or maybe it’s a response Russian missile support to Al-Assad and the rise of Shia Hezbollah beyond its usual influence. Both scenarios are a threat to the balance of power, according to the vision of the United States.
– Additionally, Iran is aggravating the sectarian aspect of the crisis by pushing Hezbollah into the conflict. At the same time, Hezbollah has held provocative celebrations in Lebanon in the wake of the battle of Al-Qusayr. Iran has also mobilised certain Iraqi Shia groups, as well as encouraging the Houthis in Yemen to join the battle in Syria.
– According to the Western formula, this will broaden the conflict in a way that makes it harder to control it or its consequences. The Western formula aims at keeping the conflict going as long as possible without seeing a winner, until a post-Assad vision has been settled upon. This will preserve Western interests in the region and maintain Israeli hegemony.
– What is even more critical for the US – and which encouraged it to change its position – is the escalating role of the radical Islamist groups, which include militants of various nationalities. This is a totally different trajectory for the Arab Spring than the Egyptian and Tunisian models that the Western powers had aspired to.
– As a result, the situation in Syria has ended up being closer to the Islamic Jihad scenario seen during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
– If the Islamists – who form the great majority of Syria’s rebellion – win the battle militarily, bring down the regime or force it into a small, isolated Alawite state,
– it will be harder for the West to control this new state and preserve its historical interests. The West is now attempting to tame the horse instead of allowing it to run the race alone after all previous attempts to contain the situation have failed.
– Cairo, ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood, realises that it should play a significant role. Over the past year, the Egyptian president seemed to be making hesitant statements about the Syrian conflict. However, Cairo seems to prefer a political settlement to hitting a dead end with the Damascus regime.
– There is a hidden message here, as Syria – in addition to Hamas – is one of the international pressure cards that help the Egyptian regime stabilise its rule. The Cairo Stadium speech was an attempt by the Egyptian regime to make use of the ‘safe shade area’ created by the recent shift in the US position. At the same time, it is maintaining the same level of settlement with Moscow and Tehran.
It was fine in the Cairo Stadium to voice Islamist and patriotic sentiments by condemning Hezbollah as a way to vent popular rage. It is even fine for the Iranians themselves if the Egyptian regime hosts such events with prominent Islamist figures to call for supporting the Syrian people.
– This will offset some of the rage before 30 June and reduce Salafist criticism of the government. Still, the reality is that the Egyptian regime can’t take a stand against Iran for the same reason of stabilising its rule, especially given that Tehran is one of its biggest supporters.
LOS ALTOS, California – Saudi Arabian religious scholars are leading an increasingly vocal chorus of Islamic preachers who are urging Muslims and Arabs to support Syrian rebels against what they say are atrocities at the hands of Iran-backed Shi’ite forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
– On Friday, the imam of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Sheikh Saudi Al-Shoreym, issued a rare appeal to Muslims to provide help "by all means" to Syrian rebels and civilians trapped in the Syria conflict.
– Popular Saudi Sheikh Mohammed Al-Erify used his guest sermon in a central mosque in Cairo, Egypt to appeal to thousands of worshippers to back groups fighting the Assad regime and urged his audience to enlist in jihad.
– On Thursday, dozens of Islamic religious scholars, mostly from the Gulf, gathered in Cairo to study plans to call for an international appeal for jihad in Syria.
– On June 4, Al-Arabiya, a Saudi-financed television channel that is usually liberal, hosted conservative leader Sheikh Youssef Qaradawi, who is based in Doha, Qatar, to urge support for jihad against Hezbollah forces who are fighting alongside Assad’s forces in Syria.
– The spike in religious appeals come weeks after the Iran-backed Shi’ite militias of Hezbollah buffed up its intervention in Syria and forced rebel forces out of the strategically important city of Qusayr (Al-Qusair). Rebels had held Qusayr for months. The city’s fall marked a shift in the balance of power since rebels took up arms in December 2011 and expelled government troops from several cities.
– Syrian government-controlled media are reporting that Assad’s forces are advancing towards the rebel stronghold of Homs, while the Iranian news agency Fars said last week that the Syrian army is gaining the upper hand in different parts of Syria.
An internationalized conflict
– Calls for jihad by Sunni scholars against Assad, who as an Alawite is a member of a minority branch of Shi’ite Islam, come as the United States signaled its willingness on Thursday to send arms to rebels in Syria, saying it had crossed a "red line" by using chemical weapons against his own people.
– During the 10-year Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that started in 1979, the United States and Saudi Arabia held similar roles, where Washington supplied weapons to Afghan mujahideen fighters and Saudi Arabia helped with funding and by offering similar religious justifications for fighting the Soviet invaders.
– Over the past several weeks, Arab media have been dominated by eyewitness testimonies on the ground of an influx of Iran-inspired Shi’ite fighters form Iraq, Lebanon and Iran into Syria to buttress the Assad regime, reports that highlight the increasing sectarian tension underlying the conflict.
Sunni Muslim scholars blame Iran and Hezbollah for turning the conflict between the Assad dictatorship and his people into a sectarian war. The rebellion initially started as peaceful pro-democracy protests in the city of Dera’a (Deraa), in the early months of the Arab Spring that saw the fall of several other dictators. The protests quickly deteriorated into a war that has cost the lives of close to 93,000 people, according to the United Nations.
– Shoreym’s Friday sermon was broadcast live on several pan-Arab television channels. The Saudi preacher is widely respected in many Sunni Muslim countries and his sermons and Koran recitals often heard in public places as well as in households. In his emotional sermon, Shoreym broke into tears as he recalled the plight of civilians, women and children in Syria.
"Women lost their husbands, the children made [into] refugees and their homes turned into rubble by the forces of aggression and tyranny," he said. "This makes all of us obligated to lend a hand to help."
– In the past Shoreym has rarely commented on politics, in keeping with the Saudi government’s line to keep Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Madina away from politics as much as possible.
– His sermon marked a notable departure from that policy, indicating the seriousness of the situation in Syria.
In Cairo, Al-Erify’s one-hour sermon focused on the need to join jihad. "Modern history has never seen such massacres as those that have been committed by that regime over the past 40 years," he said. Al-Erify, a religious preacher with best-selling books and popular TV shows, warned that if the Iran-led Shi’ite alliance succeeds in Syria they will go after "Muslim children in other countries" and "slaughter them like they did in Syria".
– Erify, Shoreym and Qaradawi’s appeals are the latest in a string of religious edicts, or fatwas, urging people to resist Assad forces in Syria.
– On Thursday, dozens of Sunni Islamic scholars, mostly from the Gulf, gathered in Cairo to declare an "urgent appeal for jihad" in Syria and to rally public support for fighters there.
– "That conference will have an impact on the ground for sure," said Gamal Sultan, editor of Al-Mesryoon newspaper in Cairo. "The world imagined that they can sell the Syrian people cheaply to the tyranny of Assad. Religious leaders are out to prove that notion wrong."
Documenting atrocities
– The conference attendees, including Ahmed Al Tayeb, grand sheikh of Al-Azhar, the bastion of Sunni Islam and the seat of its most prestigious religious studies mosque in Egypt, watched a documentary showing Hezbollah and Syrian forces committing atrocities against civilians in conflict areas.
A statement on the website of the International Union[e] of Muslim Scholars, the pan-Islamic non-governmental organization that ran the conference, said the meeting was designed to "show the real face of Iran, Assad regime and Hezbollah".
– Some of the attendees of the conference later on Friday met with Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi to try to garner his support for the jihad drive.
– The following day before thousands of supporters and religious leaders in a Cairo stadium, Morsi announced a number of steps against the Syrian regime, including cutting all relations with Damascus.
– Social media that were instrumental in launching the Arab Spring are now being used as a vibrant platform both to showcase the Syrian regime’s abuses and to call for jihad against Assad.
Earlier this week, a crude video on YouTube showed young people trying to rescue a young Syrian woman lying in the middle of the road, half-naked and injured after reportedly being raped by pro-Assad forces. One by one, the youths are shot by Assad’s forces as they try to help, and the woman is not believed to have survived.
Facebook pages share gory scenes of children, their throats slit, and masses of bodies, including children, lying under rubble. "While you are sitting flipping through your Facebook, children are dying in Syria," said one post.
(Inter-press Service)
US faces Syrian crossroads