Analisi – Washington si prende dei rischi con i suoi piani di salvataggio dell’auto
DAVID E. SANGER
– Gli aiuti previsti dal neo-eletto Obama al settore auto USA (di cui $15 MD in prestiti immediati) sono condizionati al controllo federale, il che suona come “nazionalizzazione; gli USA non hanno più ricorso alla nazionalizzazione su tali dimensioni (o suo equivalente funzionale), dalla statalizzazione delle acciaierie operata da Henry Truman 1952, per non permettere che uno sciopero mettesse a rischio la gestione della Guerra di Corea.
– Il controllo federale chiamato “zar dell’auto” potrebbe chiedere o vietare importanti transazioni o investimenti,
o Il governo USA potrebbe nel caso decidere o almeno influenzare le decisioni su quale tipo di auto I gruppi devono produrre, quali standard su consumi e ambiente …
o il governo USA non ha fatto nulla del genere da quando nella Seconda Guerra mondiale disse ai produttori auto quali tipi di carri armati costruire, e solo durante la guerra.
● Diversamente dal 1952 per ora ci sono scarse proteste, ma la strategia è molto rischiosa:
o 1. il governo non è all’altezza della gestione industriale di settori chiave (ferrovie, linee aeree, industria Difesa nazionale, sono state via-via privatizzate negli ultimi 3 decenni),
o 2. se il tentativo fallisce e i gruppi auto vanno in rovina o sono venduti a pezzi a concorrenti esteri, saranno i contribuenti americani a perdere i miliardi che devono ora essere spesi per il loro salvataggio.
o 3. il tentativo di salvataggio dei gruppi auto nazionali è una violazione dello spirito predicato dagli USA da due decenni; gli USA hanno chiesto che i vari paesi trattino i gruppi americani sul loro territorio come quelli nazionali:
o finora non si parla negli USA di aiutare ad es. Toyota, Honda o BMW, etc. con fabbriche negli USA … Se ad es. il Giappone decidesse tali aiuti, gli USA minaccerebbero rappresaglie per MD di $, l’hanno già fatto minacciando restrizioni all’import in un caso simile …
– A seconda di come procede la ripresa a lungo termine del settore, il governo americano potrebbe divenire uno dei grandi azionisti nelle Big Three, fornire prestiti o organizzare una “bancarotta strutturata”, suddividendo le quote tra i vari creditori, su somiglianza del ruolo avuto dal ministero giapponese del Commercio e Industria negli anni 1970 e 1980, quando promosse lo sviluppo dell’auto giapponese, politica industriale denunciata negli anni 1980 dal Congresso americano per svantaggio competitivo dei produttori americani.
– Il Congresso sta ora facendo la stessa cosa, e altri paesi lo denunceranno, o si comporteranno in egual modo con i loro gruppi.
Jeffrey Garten (docente presso Yale School Management, sotto-segretario al Commercio negli anni 1990): Finirà che imiteremo il sistema cinese, un misto di capitalismo e controllo statale.
By DAVID E. SANGER
WASHINGTON — When President-elect Barack Obama talked on Sunday about realigning the American automobile industry he was quick to offer a caution, lest he sound more like the incoming leader of France, or perhaps Japan.
“We don’t want government to run companies,” Mr. Obama told Tom Brokaw on “Meet the Press.” “Generally, government historically hasn’t done that very well.”
– But what Mr. Obama went on to describe was a long-term bailout that would be conditioned on federal oversight. It could mean that the government would mandate, or at least heavily influence, what kind of cars companies make, what mileage and environmental standards they must meet and what large investments they are permitted to make — to recreate an industry that Mr. Obama said “actually works, that actually functions.”
– It all sounds perilously close to a word that no one in Mr. Obama’s camp wants to be caught uttering: nationalization.
– Not since Harry Truman seized America’s steel mills in 1952 rather than allow a strike to imperil the conduct of the Korean War has Washington toyed with nationalization, or its functional equivalent, on this kind of scale.
– Mr. Obama may be thinking what Mr. Truman told his staff: “The president has the power to keep the country from going to hell.” (The Supreme Court thought differently and forced Mr. Truman to relinquish control.)
– The fact that there is so little protest in the air now — certainly less than Mr. Truman heard — reflects the desperation of the moment. But it is a strategy fraught with risks.
– The first, of course, is the one the president-elect himself highlighted. Government’s record as a corporate manager is miserable, which is why the world has been on a three-decade-long privatization kick, turning national railroads, national airlines and national defense industries into private companies.
– The second risk is that if the effort fails, and the American car companies collapse or are auctioned off in pieces to foreign competitors, taxpayers may lose the billions about to be spent.
– And the third risk — one barely discussed so far — is that in trying to save the nation’s carmakers, the United States is violating at least the spirit of what it has preached around the world for two decades. The United States has demanded that nations treat American companies on their soil the same way they treat their home-grown industries, a concept called “national treatment.”
– Yet so far, there is no talk of offering aid to Toyota, Honda, BMW or the other foreign automakers that have built factories on American soil, employed American workers and managed to make a profit doing so.
– “If Japan was doing this, we’d be threatening billions of dollars in retaliation,” said Jeffrey Garten, a professor at the Yale School of Management, who as under secretary of commerce in the 1990s was one of many government officials who tried in vain to get Detroit prepared for a world of international competition. “In fact, when they did something a lot more subtle, we threatened exactly that,” referring to calls for import restrictions.
– Mr. Garten said he was stunned by the scope of the intervention that Washington was now considering. “I don’t know that we’ve seen anything like this since the government told the automakers what kind of tanks to make during World War II,” he said. “And that was just for the duration of the war — this could be for much, much longer.”
It is hard to measure just what kind of chances Mr. Obama may be taking with this plan, in part because so many parts of it are still in motion.
– In the short term, Democrats are floating the idea of linking $15 billion in immediate loans to the designation of a “car czar” who, in doling out the money, could require or veto big transactions or investments — essentially a one-man board of directors. The White House indicates that President Bush, who has spent his entire presidency proclaiming that the government’s role is to create an environment that spurs free enterprise and minimizes government regulation, would very likely sign the rescue plan.
– The first $15 billion and the car czar who oversees it, however, are only the beginning. “After that, we’re in uncharted water,” said Malcolm S. Salter, a professor emeritus at Harvard Business School who has studied the auto industry for two decades and, until a few years ago, was an adviser to General Motors and Ford. “Think about this: Who in the federal government would have the tremendous insight needed to fix this industry?”
– Depending on how the longer-term revamping of the industry proceeds, Washington could become a major shareholder in the Big Three, it could provide loans, or, in one course that Mr. Obama seemed to hint at on Sunday, it could organize what amounts to a “structured bankruptcy.” In that case, the government would convene the creditors, the unions, the shareholders and the company’s management, and apportion a share of the hit to each of them. If that “consensus building” sounds a lot like the role of the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the 1970s and the 1980s, well, it is.
– To promote the Japanese car industry on the way up, the trade ministry nudged companies toward consolidation, and even tried to mandate which parts of the market each could go into.
o (Soichiro Honda, the founder of the company, rebelled when bureaucrats told him he was supposed to limit himself to making motorcycles.) By the 1980s, Congress was denouncing this as “industrial policy,” and arguing that it put American makers at a competitive disadvantage — and polluted free enterprise.
Now, it is Congress doing exactly that, but this time as emergency surgery. Other nations will doubtless complain, or begin doing the same for their own companies. “We’re at this moment in history, in which the Chinese are touting that their system is better than ours” with their mix of capitalism and state control, said Mr. Garten, who has long experience in Asia. “And our response, it looks like, is to begin replicating what they’ve been doing.”