– Secondo il FMI quest’anno la crescita globale potrebbe essere del 4%, ma distribuita in modo diverso tra PVS e Occidente.
– La Germania del decennio precedente all’euro ha perso fortemente di competitività,
o in parte a causa delle svalutazioni di diversi dei suoi partner commerciali,
o in parte a causa dell’inflazione interna provocata dal boom seguente l’unificazione;
o in questo periodo la Germania ebbe il terzo maggior aumento del tasso di cambio della propria moneta (dati Deutsche Bank, DB),
o conseguenza: la crescita della prima parte dell’ultimo decennio è stata lenta.
– Nel decennio seguente l’introduzione dell’euro, la Germania ha ridotto di quasi il 20% il suo tasso di cambio reale sulla base del costo del lavoro unitario relativo (DB).
● Questo è stato di gran lunga il maggior aumento di competitività della zona euro;
● il governo liberalizzò il mercato del lavoro con la serie di riforme che vanno sotto il nome di Agenda 2010.
● I gruppi tedeschi poterono così a tagliare i costi,
o spesso in accordo con il sindacato, grazie al fatto che alla struttura a due livello dei consigli di amministrazione, che riconosce ai rappresentanti dei lavoratori il diritto di esprimersi nei consigli di sorveglianza.
● Grazie all’ottenuta flessibilità nell’utilizzo della forza lavoro, i gruppi tedeschi hanno potuto rispondere più velocemente durante la recessione diminuendo il costo del lavoro:
o 1,5 milioni di salariati tedeschi hanno lavorato a tempo ridotto dalla fine 2008,
o evitando licenziamenti di massa, e consentendo alle aziende tedesche di rispondere prontamente alla ripresa disponendo ancora della forza lavoro necessaria.
– Il deficit dei conti correnti del 1999 si è trasformato in un enorme surplus quest’anno, creato dai forti profitti derivanti dall’export,
● l’export tedesco rappresenta oggi il 48% del PIL;
● la Germania è oggi un grande fornitore di prodotti industriali di alta qualità ai PVS,
o per quest’anno si prevede una sua crescita del 3%, riflesso della forte crescita dei mercati emergenti.
o l’aspetto negativo dell’austerità imposta nell’ultimo decennio dal governo tedesco è la debolezza del mercato interno;
o il tasso di disoccupazione tedesco è inferiore all’8%.
o Dato il ritmo della ripresa si prevede che riprendano i consumi, e che le importazioni tedesche dagli altri paesi dell’area euro servano a trainarne la ripresa.
– Grecia, Irlanda, Portogallo e Spagna hanno lasciato crescere il costo del lavoro per unità, approfittando del prestito a basso costo per alimentare lo sviluppo con il debito;
o ora hanno tutte e quattro tagliato i salari del PI;
o la competitività dell’Irlanda è aumentata del 6%, i salari medi diminuiti del 4% rispetto al 2% rispetto al resto della zona dell’euro.
o In Irlanda le esportazioni rappresentano l’80% del PIL, il che significa che se aumentano del 5% il PIL aumenterà del 4%.
L’ex Cancelliere – Schröder ritiene che la crescita economica in corso sia il risultato della sua politica
● L’ex Cancelliere SPD Schröder: i risultati economici oggi registrati dall’economia tedesca sono dovuti ad Agenda 2010, la serie di riforme del mercato del lavoro varata nel 2003 dal suo governo rosso-verde (la grande coalizione), non alla politica del governo giallo-nero in carica (Union-FDP), della Cancelliera Merkel,
o oltre alla “ragionevole” politica salariale condotta dai sindacati,
o e ad una economia orientata sulle PMI, divenute presto concorrenziali sul mercato mondiale.
– Senza quelle riforme la Germania si troverebbe dove stanno i paesi vicini; la Francia dovrebbe attuare i necessari tagli;
– Schröder è deluso dal parziale abbandono da parte della SPD del pensionamento a 67 anni.
L’ex ministro dell’Economia, Michael Glos (CSU) lodò Schröder, per il coraggioso passo avanti di Agenda 2010.
Ask Germany where growth comes from
– Where will growth come from? It’s the question everyone is asking across the Western world, from London to Washington to Tokyo and taking in many of the peripheral countries of the euro zone as they brace themselves for the impact of austerity. It was the subject of U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech to the Confederation of British Industry conference on Monday as Britain’s business leaders worried about the impact of his coalition government’s deep spending cuts. But for an answer, the best place to look is the one Western country that is enjoying an astonishing renaissance: Germany.
– In one sense, it’s the wrong question to ask anyway. Global growth is likely to exceed 4% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund. That’s high even by pre-boom standards, even if that growth is likely to be unevenly distributed between developing countries and Western countries still struggling with the effects of the financial crisis. In another sense, the answer to the question is obvious, since growth will come from where it usually comes from: the animal spirits of millions of individual entrepreneurs, investors and consumers via some mixture of confidence and an eye for the main chance.
– The question for governments is what they can do to create the conditions to allow their economies to share in that growth. In this respect, Mr. Cameron trotted out the usual bog-standard measures: export promotion; infrastructure upgrades; investment in education and science; whizzy new government initiatives to increase the supply of venture capital. He was also right to point out that the biggest contribution governments can make is to ensure a stable and predictable macroeconomic environment, which the U.K. coalition government has so far achieved with its tough budget and spending policies.
– To see what is really required to create the conditions for growth, look at Germany’s economic performance over the past 20 years.
o In the decade before the creation of the euro, Germany suffered a striking loss of competitiveness, partly as a result of pre-euro-entry devaluations by many of its trading partners
o and partly due to domestic inflation triggered by its post-unification boom. During that period, Germany suffered the third largest increase in its effective exchange rate, according to Deutsche Bank research. As a result, its growth during the first half of the current decade was sluggish, prompting widespread criticism of its economic model.
– Yet, over the next decade, despite being a member of a currency union[e] that made devaluation impossible, Germany reduced its real effective exchange rate by nearly 20% based on relative unit labor costs, according to Deutsche Bank.
– That was by far the biggest increase in competitiveness in the euro zone. The government liberalized the labor market with a series of reforms dubbed Agenda 2010.
– German companies responded by cutting costs, often working harmoniously with their unions thanks to Germany’s two-tier board structure, which gives worker representatives a voice on supervisory boards.
– The result was a more competitive, flexible labor force, enabling German firms to take swift action during the recession to reduce labor costs:
o 1.5 million Germans were working shorter hours by the end of 2008, thereby avoiding the need for mass layoffs and leaving German firms well-placed to respond to the recovery.
– The results of these competitiveness gains have been astonishing. A current account deficit in 1999 had turned into a huge surplus by this year, driven by huge export gains.
– Today, German exports account for a record 48% of GDP. Germany is now a major supplier of high-quality industrial goods to the developing world, its likely 3% GDP growth this year reflecting the rapid growth in emerging markets.
– The flipside of Germany’s self-imposed austerity during the past decade is that domestic demand has remained weak. Even so, Germany’s record low unemployment rate of under 8% is the envy of the world.
Germany’s renaissance contains both a clear warning and a message of hope for those euro-zone countries caught up in the boom now struggling to tackle spiraling budget deficits.
– Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain all allowed unit labor costs to soar as they took advantage of cheap borrowing to embark on debt-fueled booms.
– Germany has shown that only tough structural reforms can restore competitiveness.
– All four countries have cut public-sector wages, a vital first step. Ireland’s competitiveness has improved 6% in 2009 relative to the rest of the euro zone with average wages falling 4% compared to a 2% rise across the region. But reforms to make labor markets more flexible are essential.
– The reason for optimism is that Germans are bound to start spending again, given the pace of the recovery. Germany could yet be the engine that pulls the rest of the euro zone out of danger by sucking in imports from its neighbors.
– In Ireland, exports account for 80% of GDP, so a 5% increase in exports would lead to 4% growth in GDP, transforming its debt dynamics. Providing peripheral euro-zone countries are willing to take the tough economic medicine, reports of the euro zone’s imminent demise may prove premature.
Meanwhile, the lessons of Germany’s recovery go beyond the euro zone. For much of the past decade, as their economies boomed, U.S. and U.K. policy makers, economists and commentators tended to look down on Germany, believing its economy was stuck in a time-warp. Even now, with both the U.S. and U.K. central banks poised to unleash another round of quantitative easing in an attempt to devalue their currencies and induce some inflation, there’s a reluctance to acknowledge that Germany has anything to teach anyone about how to engineer a flexible, competitive, modern economy. That may be a mistake.
Alt-Bundeskanzler – Schröder sieht seine Politik als Grund für Aufschwung
Laut Alt-Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder hat der Aufschwung in Deutschland nichts mit der Regierung zu tun. Wohl aber mit seinen Reformen.
– Alt-Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder macht die unter ihm beschlossene Agenda 2010 für den gegenwärtigen Wirtschaftsaufschwung verantwortlich. „Die heutige Bundesregierung hat nicht viel damit zu tun“, sagte der SPD-Politiker der „Bild“-Zeitung.
– Die 2003 von der rot-grünen Bundesregierung beschlossene Agenda 2010 habe einen erheblichen Anteil am Aufschwung.
– Zudem habe es eine vernünftige Lohnpolitik der Gewerkschaften gegeben und eine Position der mittelständisch orientierten deutschen Wirtschaft, die sehr frühzeitig weltmarktfähig geworden sei.
Weniger als drei Millionen Arbeitslose in Sicht
Ohne die damaligen Reformen würde Deutschland dort stehen, wo derzeit die Nachbarn stünden, die keine Reformen angepackt hätten, sagte Schröder.
– In Frankreich etwa müsse die Regierung jetzt die notwendigen Einschnitte machen. Enttäuscht sei er aber über die teilweise Abkehr der SPD von der Rente mit 67.
Der ehemalige Bundeswirtschaftsminister Michael Glos (CSU) lobte Schröder. Die Agenda 2010 sei ein mutiger Schritt nach vorn und mit dem Risiko des Scheitern verbunden gewesen, sagte er der Zeitung. Der Grundgedanke des Forderns und Förderns sei richtig gewesen.