– Nuovo calo dei salari reali nei 17 paesi dell’euro nel 4° trimestre 2011, calata anche l’occupazione:
in rosa la contrazione, in verde la crescita; in rosa e verde più tenui le precedenti previsioni (autunno 2011)
A febbraio la Commissione UE ha rivisto al ribasso molte delle precedenti previsioni, con una contrazione complessiva dell’eurozona, anziché un aumento dello 0,5% previsto nell’autunno 2011.
– La Germania ha il maggiore debito statale complessivo di tutti i paesi dell’Euro, definito come debito lordo complessivo al valore nominale detenuto a fine anno da governo centrale, governi di Land e province. Il debito della Germania è oltre i 2 trilioni di €, circa l’82% del PIL di €2 567 trilioni. Il debito statale della Grecia è molto inferiore, ma pesa molto di più sul PIL, che è molto minore.
Meno della metà dei paesi dell’Euro soddisfacevano alla norma nel 2011, e il debito di molti paesi ha continuato a crescere.
La crisi del debito e le misure di austerità impose hanno aumentato il tasso di disoccupazione, già alto, in molti paesi della periferia dell’Euro, Grecia, Irlanda, Italia, Spagna e Portogallo.
– Nel 4° trimestre 2011 salari eurozona + 2,5% (+2,4% nel 3° trimestre) contro tasso medio di inflazione di circa 2,9% à salari reali calati. (dati Eurostat)
o Salari in Germania +3,7% 4° trimestre 2012, +3,1% nel 3° trim.
o in Irlanda e Portogallo -1,9% e -1,7% rispettivamente.
o In Spagna +2,3% nel 4° trimestre, +3,4% nel 3° trimestre.
– Occupazione -0,2% nell’ultimo trimestre 2011, sia sul trimestre che sull’anno precedenti. Il maggiore calo precedente è stato nel 3° trim. 2009, -0,5%
o Germania, +0,3% sul trim. precedente, +1,4% su stesso trim. 2010.
o Irlanda, dati non disponibili
o Portogallo, -2,7%, nel 4° trim. su 3° trim 2011;
o Spagna, -1%;
o Italia -0,1%.
– Il costo complessivo del lavoro dell’eurozona +2,8% nel 4° trimestre 2011, +2,6% nel 3° trim.
Il calo dei consumi ha contribuito al calo dello 0,3% del PIL nello stesso trimestre, senza previsioni di ripresa a breve.
– LONDON—Real wages fell again in the 17 countries that use the euro in the fourth quarter of last year, while employment also declined, confirming that consumption and confidence are likely to remain weak as the region teeters on the brink of a return to recession, data from European statistical agency Eurostat showed Thursday.
– The figures also confirm a growing divergence between economic power-house Germany, where wages and employment both grew significantly, and the weaker peripheral countries, which reported either slow wage increases or declines, while employment fell in almost all remaining member states.
– Wages in the euro zone rose 2.5% on the year in the fourth quarter of last year. While that was marginally stronger than the 2.4% increase in the third quarter, it compares with an average inflation rate of around 2.9%, indicating that real wages fell over the period and likely weighed on consumers’ ability and appetite to spend.
– Eurostat data also showed that employment declined 0.2% both on the quarter and on the year in the final three months of last year. While the quarterly drop was the same rate reported in the third quarter, the annual decline compared with a 0.2% increase between July and September. Also, the quarterly decline was last larger in the third quarter of 2009 at 0.5%.
– As well as confirming the weak level of spending throughout the wider economy, which contributed to the 0.3% quarterly fall in gross domestic product in the same quarter, the data highlight that a recovery in spending isn’t likely anytime soon. A drop or no change in employment in all euro-zone countries apart from Germany will continue to sap confidence, while a slower inflation rate could also weigh on wage growth.
– The detail of the data show that German wages grew 3.7% in the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 3.1% in the third quarter. But in Ireland and Portugal, average wages fell by 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. Considering the fiscal difficulties both economies face, it is a welcome development for their governments and shows they are attempting to balance there books.
– Spanish wage costs, however, rose 2.3% in the fourth quarter, although it was significant drop from the 3.4% rise in the third quarter of last year.
– The employment data, meanwhile, showed a similar picture. In Germany, employment grew 0.3% in the fourth quarter when compared to the previous quarter, and by 1.4% when compared to the year-earlier quarter. While data are unavailable for Ireland, employment slumped 2.7% in Portugal, 1% in Spain and by 0.1% in Italy in the fourth quarter compared with the third.
Eurostat also reported that total labor costs in the euro zone, which include other employment costs such as taxes and other employer financial contributions, rose 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, up from a 2.6% increase in the third quarter.
The last time the quarterly decline in unemployment was greater than 0.2% was in the third quarter of 2009, at 0.5%. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the last time the quarterly decline was larger was in the first quarter of 2009, at 0.8%.