– Le crescenti tensioni tra i 16 paesi dell’area euro, mentre cercano di contenere la crisi del debito pubblico, vengono portate alla luce
o dall’attacco sferrato dal primo ministro greco, George Papandreou, contro la Germania:
o suo maggiore “benefattore”, per aver criticato duramente le inadempienze del governo greco sul debito.
– Mentre venivano resi pubblici dati finanziari del governo greco che fanno pensare più probabile la possibilità che la Grecia non sarà in grado di liberarsi dal proprio debito,
o Papandreu ha attaccato la Germania, per aver innescato con le sue posizioni – possibilità di perdite per i detentori privati di titoli statali in caso di un nuovo salvataggio – una «spirale di aumento dei tassi di interesse per i paesi che appaiono in difficoltà, come Irlanda e Portogallo».
o Il 14 novembre la Grecia ha informato che per il 2010 non riuscirà a portare il deficit all’8,1% del PIL, ma solo al 9,4%; il mese scorso aveva assicurato che l’avrebbe ridotto al 7,8%. Il debito complessivo sarà del 144% del PIL (contro il 133% concordato in occasione del prestito, e il 150% nel 2013); un’economista di Citigroup prevede che possa raggiungere il 165% del PIL per il 2013.
o Il deficit 2009 è stato corretto da 13,6%, come precedentemente stimato, al 15,4% del PIL; le continue revisioni dei dati evidenziano lo sforzo della Grecia di far entrare denaro a sufficienza per sanare il deficit. Le entrate fiscali solo aumentate di solo il 3,7% nei primi 10 mesi 2010 rispetto allo stesso periodo 2009, mentre secondo gli accordi di maggio a fine anno dovrebbero essere aumente del 13,7%.
– La Germania insiste per far sì che gli investitori si facciano carico di parte delle perdite, in caso di crisi del debito pubblico della zona dell’euro.
– Le difficoltà di alcuni paesi a trovare prestiti allarga il problema ad altri paesi e indebolisce l’euro;
– l’Irlanda, in forte crisi del debito, sta subendo pressioni perché accetti un salvataggio per frenare il contagio;
– il primo ministro portoghese ha ventilato la possibilità che il Portogallo sia costretto ad abbandonare l’area euro,
ipotesi che non viene attualmente più accettata in Germania, dopo il salvataggio alla Grecia (su un totale di €110MD, €22MD sono venuti dalla Germania).
Greece, Germany Grapple Over Debt
– Greece’s prime minister lashed out Monday at Germany—its chief euro-zone benefactor—for tough talk on government-debt defaults, making clear the widening strains inside the 16-member euro-zone as the currency bloc wrestles with a teeming sovereign-debt crisis.
– Addressing reporters in Paris, George Papandreou said the Germans’ view—long-held, but recently reiterated—that private bondholders could suffer losses as part of a future bailout was intensifying government-debt woes.
– The German position "created a spiral of higher interest rates for countries that seemed to be in a difficult position, such as Ireland or Portugal," Mr. Papandreou said. He added that the spiral could "break backs" and "force economies toward bankruptcy."
– The sharp words reflect the severe difficulties the euro zone faces as it tries to shepherd its weaker members through an unstable period in which their access to borrowing from private markets is sharply curtailed.
– Many in Europe—particularly in Germany—are wary of simply replacing that market financing with a blank check from other euro-zone taxpayers, hence the German insistence on finding others to take some of the losses. German leaders also believe that the tough-love approach will, in the long-term, give countries the incentive to live within their means.
"Our task is to anchor a new culture of stability in Europe," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in prepared remarks for a party congress Monday.
– A spokeswoman for Ms. Merkel said Monday the German chancellor’s call for investors to bear a share of the burden in case of a euro-zone default in sovereign debt was made in reference to European Union[e] discussions about new strategies for financial-crisis management that would not be implemented before 2013.
– At the same time, the very fact that some countries are facing borrowing difficulties is spreading the problem to others and weakening the euro. That makes a speedy solution imperative.
– Ireland, the country most acutely in crisis, is facing pressure to accept a bailout in order to stem the contagion, and a Portuguese minister speculated over the weekend that his country—another weak spot—may be forced to leave the euro zone.
– In a bit of odd timing, Mr. Papandreou’s remarks came as his own country released revised government-finance figures that made it more likely Greece would be unable to get out from under the crush of its own debt pile.
– In light of the sovereign debt crisis surrounding the euro, previously outlandish notions of dismantling the euro-zone are gaining a more welcome reception in Germany, a country where many have resented having to bail out Greece. WSJ’s Andy Jordan reports.
– Greece said Monday it would miss a target to reduce its government deficit to 8.1% of gross domestic product this year, which was set after Greece took a €110 billion ($150 billion) bailout from euro-zone countries and the International Monetary Fund. (Germany put up €22 billion of that total.) As recently as last month, Greece said it would beat its target and report a deficit of 7.8%.
– Instead, it now says the deficit is likely to be 9.4% this year, and that government debt would total 144% of GDP at the end of 2010. Citigroup economist Giada Giani said Greece’s debt could reach 165% of GDP in 2013. At the time of the bailout, Greece agreed that its 2010 debt would be 133%, rising to 150% in 2013.
A wakeup call for Greece and the euro. WSJ’s Andy Jordan and Joe Parkinson report from Athens on the threat of a potentially contagious debt crisis and the moral hazard of bailing out a country with bad fiscal habits.
– The bigger debt burden will increase Greece’s annual interest tab. "A significantly higher debt profile inevitably makes the fiscal situation in Greece even more unsustainable than before," Ms. Giani wrote in a research note.
– The revisions are in part the fruit of an effort to revamp Greece’s poor record of making economic estimates and compiling government statistics. The 2009 deficit—also adjusted Monday from 13.6% of GDP to 15.4%—has been revised a half-dozen times. Greece now says it has finally seen the end of statistical revisions.
– But the changes to the numbers also reflect a more fundamental problem: Greece is straining to bring in enough cash to close its budget gap sufficiently. Data from the Greek finance ministry show that revenue is up just 3.7% in the first 10 months of 2010, against the same period a year ago. The deal Greece inked in May as part of its bailout calls for full-year 2010 revenue to be up by 13.7%. That’s now all but impossible, and Greek authorities have responded by imposing additional spending cuts to compensate. Analysts say Monday’s new figures mean Greece will have to cut again.
—Alkman Granitsas, Amelie Baubeau, William Horobin and David Crawford contributed to this article.