- Secondo funzionario governativo nel 2010 la capacità
produttiva di autoveicoli supererà i 20 milioni, contro un domanda di 9
milioni. - Nel 2000 venivano prodotti solo 15 modelli di
autovetture, ora oltre 125 modelli di 32 marche. - La capacità ha già superato gli 8 milioni di unità/anno
(non chiaro se include veicoli industriali), appena sotto quella della
Germania, terzo prod. mondiale. - Nel 2004 sono stati venduti in Cina circa 5 milioni di
veicoli; a ottobre 2005 l’aumento era del 40% sull’anno precedente, grazie
anche a ribassi dei prezzi praticati da quasi tutte le case.
Difficoltà ad esportare, causa percezione di bassa
qualità.
By SHAI OSTER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 22, 2005; Page A13
BEIJING — Chinese policy makers — and some
investors — are getting worried there might not be enough customers to buy all
the cars coming off the country’s assembly lines.
By 2010, a top government official warned
last week, total annual production capacity will exceed 20 million vehicles,
while demand will be nine million.
"The industry is facing a grave
overproduction situation," said Chen Bin, deputy director of the National
Development and Reform Commission’s industrial department.
Global auto makers including Volkswagen
AG, General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. have announced plans to
invest further in China, in some cases tripling capacity. The market has
experienced a surge of entrants and new models in the past five years: In
2000, only 15 passenger models were available. Today, 32 brands are producing
more than 125 models, according to industry consultant Automotive Resources
Asia.
China’s annual production capacity already
is more than eight million units, within striking distance of Germany, the
world’s third-biggest auto manufacturer after the U.S. and Japan. About five
million vehicles were sold in China in 2004.
For foreign manufacturers in China, the
export possibilities so far offer little solace. Auto makers such as
DaimlerChrysler AG — with a newly expanded plant on the outskirts of Beijing
— are trying to figure out how to use China’s cheap labor the same way the
computer and textiles industries have. But no manufacturer has been able to
profitably export significant amounts of cars.
Overcapacity is mostly concentrated in the
bottom end of the market, said Yale Zhang, a
consultant at CSM Worldwide. But China’s domestic companies will be able to export
cars successfully only if they shake off perceptions of low quality. Early
exports to Europe have met a chilly reception despite their comparatively low
price.
Mr. Chen said the government is considering
tightening access to loans for domestic manufacturers — a move most likely to
affect the dozens of marginal producers making light commercial vehicles.
Foreign companies will remain unfettered.
Not all oversupply estimates are as dire as
Mr. Chen’s, and not all announced projects will materialize — but car makers
already are cutting prices, and some listed on the Shanghai and Hong Kong
exchanges have watched their share prices slide this year.
GM’s joint venture, Shanghai GM, said
that although competition, economies of scale and the increasing popularity of
smaller cars have pushed prices down, it would continue to aggressively
expand in China. Auto makers tend to overbuild capacity in hopes of
staying ahead of the market.
Investors are taking note of the bumps
encountered by Chinese auto makers. Dongfeng Motor Corp., which makes
vehicles with Honda Motor Co. and PSA Peugeot-Citroën, has kept the
size of an initial public offering of stock in Hong Kong, planned for December,
to about $600 million; originally, it had hoped to raise $1 billion.
Dongfeng’s Shanghai shares have lost 21% since the start of 2005. Auto
makers Denway Motors Ltd. and Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd. also
have seen their share prices fall this year.
Meanwhile, overall sales remain solid.
Sales of sedans, down slightly in October from September because of the
National Day holidays, still rose nearly 40% from October 2004. Those
gains have come, in part, because auto makers have been cutting prices this
fall to lure customers. Guangzhou Honda Automobile dropped the price of its
Accord by 7%, Shanghai Volkswagen cut 8% off its Passat, and Shanghai GM
reduced the price of its newly launched model, the Epica, by 12%, according
to Automotive Resources Asia.
Auto makers who are able to produce cars more
efficiently — partly by relying less on imported parts — should earn
good money, industry researchers contend.