La Russia regna sull’oleodottostan
Come finirà l’infinita soap opera di Nabucco, 4000 km dalla Turchia all’Austria, lo sapremo solo l’anno prossimo.
– Una parte della fornitura di gas per Nabucco potrebbe venire dall’Azerbaijan, un’altra dal Turkmenistan,
o ma Nabucco può entrare in funzione solo se fornito dal gas iraniano, il che è impedito dal veto Usa,
o al quale si è sottomessa la UE, sabotando in tal modo il suo più ambizioso progetto nel campo dell’energia, che doveva contribuire a diversificare le forniture diminuendo la dipendenza dal gas del russo Gazprom.
– Anche Mosca cerca di impedire all’Iran di entrare nel progetto Nabucco, e di aumentare fino al 30% la fornitura di gas alla Ue, e con essa la sua capacità di condizionamento.
– Per il “Corridoio Sud”, passante per l’Italia, sono in lizza due gasdotti, il favorito è TAP, (Gasdotto Trans-Adriatico), una joint venture svizzero-tedesco-norvegese, che userà le infrastrutture già in sito, e necessita di investimenti solo per il breve gasdotto sottomarino da Grecia e Italia. Questa scelta è facilitata dal fatto che il norvegese Statoil detiene il 25,5% dello sfruttamento dei giacimenti di Shah Deniz 2.
– Per la rotta Nord/Balcanisono in competizione altri due oleodotti: Nabucco
o e SEEP, il gasdotto del S-E Europa, un progetto di BP, che è socio di maggioranza di Shah Deniz 2. L’Azerbaijan, dove la corruzione impera, può essere definito un paese di BP.
o SEEP è il favorito essendo molto meno costoso di Nabucco, e non necessitando di gas turkmeno.
– Nella contesa sui gasdotti, la Russia è il maggior vincente; South Stream, il gasdotto russo-italiano è ormai concordato (Putin-Berlusconi), e Gazprom sta cercando di accaparrarsi il gas del Centro Asia: più ne importerà, meno ce ne sarà per l’Europa, se non venduto dalla Russia.
o Con Putin tornato alla presidenza, aumenterà l’influenza della Russia dal Caucaso al Centro Asia; per incassare i dividendi della strategia elaborata da Putin nel 2000, la Russia doveva sabotare Nabucco;
o ha contribuito a questa operazione la crisi finanziaria europea, dati i costi previsti fino a $25MD; il termine della sua costruzione è previsto al più presto per il 2017;
o ma anche il fatto che l’Azerbaijan può fornire meno della metà del gas necessario (cruciali gli enormi giacimenti di gas di Shah Deniz 2);
o ancora incerto il gas dal Turkmenistan; l’Iran è stato escluso dagli Usa.
– Rimane aperta l’opzione del gasdotto trans caspico TCP, tra Turkmenistan e Azerbaijan, che consentirebbe all’Europa l’accesso all’energia centro-asiatica sotto il Caspio; TCP è appoggiato dalla Turchia.
o Putin farà probabilmente il possibile per farlo naufragare,
o ed è da vedere se la UE riprenderà i negoziati con l’Iran.
– Un altro vincitore certo della contesa è la Turchia, per la quale deve obbligatoriamente passare il gas proveniente dall’Azerbaijan verso l’Europa.
o Turchia e Azerbaijan si sono impegnati alla costruzione di TANAP, il gasdotto transanatolico, che farà parte del Corridoio Sud.
– La Turchia è vincente anche se l’Azerbaijan dovesse vendere alla Russia il gas in eccesso:
ha autorizzato il passaggio sottomarino sul proprio territorio di South Stream, in cambio di maggiori legami commerciali ed energetici con la Russia.
By Pepe Escobar
– Nabucco – the alleged gas Holy Grail from the Caspian Sea to Europe, 4,000 kilometers from Turkey to Austria – is the perennial Pipelineistan soap opera.
o Part of the gas to supply Nabucco may come from Azerbaijan. Another part might – a very problematic "might" – come from Turkmenistan.
o But every self-respecting energy analyst knows Nabucco could only possibly work if it was supplied by natural gas from Iran. That will happen over Washington’s collective dead body.
– So, once again, the spineless European Union[e] (EU) political "leadership" – once again acting like the poodles of choice – gloriously sabotaged what it has always billed as its most ambitious energy project; caved in to US pressure; and ultimately sacrificed its energy independence. And all this from people who never lose an opportunity to decry that Europe is a "gas hostage" to Russia’s Gazprom.
– As with all things Pipelineistan, there are layers and layers of nuance. Moscow is pulling out all the stops to prevent Iran from eventually joining Nabucco – because its top policy agenda is to extend its stranglehold over the EU’s gas supply to 30%.
– The crucial Azerbaijan gas angle is centered on the huge Shah Deniz 2 fields. For what is called the Southern Corridor, via Italy, two possible pipelines are in competition. Then there are two others competing on a Northern/Balkans route; one of them is Nabucco; the other, faithful to the acronym-laden ethos of Pipelineistan, is the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP). Only next year will the world know the end chapter for this never-ending soap opera.
– For the Southern Corridor, the favorite is TAP (Trans-Adriatic pipeline), a Swiss-German-Norwegian joint venture. TAP will use infrastructure already in place and only needs investment in a short underwater pipeline from Greece to Italy. Norway’s Statoil, crucially, is a 25.5% partner in the exploitation of Shah Deniz 2 fields; that makes things way easier.
– For the Northern/Balkans route, the fat lady may be about to sing for Nabucco. The favorite to win is a BP project, much cheaper than Nabucco, and with no need to use Turkmen gas.
– BP – of Gulf of Mexico polluting fame – happens to be the major stockholder of Shah Deniz 2. Azerbaijan – mired in corruption – can be reasonably described as BP country. Even his close ally Washington knows Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is something of a Mafia boss. The Azeris, by the way, happen to be very popular in Washington courtesy of the Israeli lobby.
– A certified winner in this complex Pipelineistan battle is Turkey. After all, any gas from Azerbaijan towards Europe must transit through Turkey. Since last December, in fact, Turkey and Azerbaijan have a memorandum in place committing both to the construction of the TANAP (Trans-Anatolian Pipeline). TANAP will eventually become part of the Southern Corridor.
– Even if Azerbaijan decides to sell its extra gas wealth to Russia, Turkey also wins. Turkey has authorized the underwater passage of the Russian-Italian (Vladimir Putin-Silvio Berlusconi?) South Stream pipeline in its territory in return for even more robust trade and energy ties with Russia.
– But most of all Russia wins. South Stream is a go. Gazprom for its part has increased its charm offensive all across Central Asia; this means that the more Gazprom imports gas from them, the less gas will be available for Europe (unless it is sold by Russia …)
– With Putin back in the presidency in May, the strategy that he laid out back in 2000 is graphically paying all kinds of dividends.
– Gazprom’s head Alexei Miller – appointed by Putin – is totally invested in creating a complex economy of scale with energy supplying countries in the region, applying a very Chinese "win-win" mentality.
– The leadership in Azerbaijan, for instance, knows very well that Russia is the only player capable of determining what goes on in the Caucasus – and on top of it offers great energy deals. So here’s the writing on the wall; Russia under Putin will be even more influential from the Caucasus to Central Asia.
– For this to work, Russia had to torpedo Nabucco. In fact, the European-wide financial crisis took care of it. Nabucco may end up costing a staggering $25 billion – and counting. Nabucco’s construction "might" start by the end of 2014 and be finished by the end of 2017; but all dates have been incessantly postponed for years. Azerbaijan could only provide less than half of the gas. Nobody anywhere really knows what will be Turkmenistan’s game. And Iran has been ruled out by His Master’s Voice – Washington.
– Still, the TCP (Trans-Caspian Pipeline) – between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan – remains in the cards. That, in theory, would be the gate for Europe to finally have (indirect) access to the Central Asian energy wealth of the Caspian Sea. Ashgabat and Baku seem to be in synch about it – the whole thing helped by EU-brokered negotiations. Turkey has also endorsed it. But Russia under Putin will do whatever it takes to bomb the TCP idea.
– Still the most pressing question seems to be whether anybody in Brussels will wake up from its masochistic haze, stop the sanction nonsense, and talk energy with Iran.