Libano, economia, paesi arabi, Ue, Germania, Usa
CNN, editoriale 06-08-23
L’appoggio arabo può far fare una svolta al Libano
Gran parte dei $50MD spesi nella ricostruzione del paese
dopo la guerra civile terminata nel 1990 sono stati distrutti dalle 5 settimane
di aggressione. Secondo stime
governative libanesi le distruzioni in Libano per un mese di aggressione
israeliana sono state pari a quelle di quasi 15 anni di guerra civile.
Dalla riunione d’emergenza dei paesi arabi:
per la ricostruzione del Libano il Kuwait ha promesso
$800mn., $500mn. l’Arabia Saudita. Il Qatar dovrebbe ricostruire due città nel
Sud; gli EAU occuparti di scuole e ospedali.
Prima del conflitto il Libano riceveva importanti
investimenti dal Golfo; i soli Emirati hanno pompato $2,7MD in diverse
joint-venture, per la maggior parte nel settore immobiliare; alla conclusione
della tregua le azioni dei produttori di cemento sono salite fortemente, ad anticipare
un boom edilizio in Libano e l’aumentata domanda nella regione.
Gli USA
si sono impegnati per $230mn.
CNN,
editoriale 06-08-23
Arab
assistance can help turn Lebanon
around
An uneasy truce between Lebanese guerrilla
group Hizbullah and Israel
is now into its second week. Barely a few days into the war, estimates for the
cost to repair Lebanon’s
infrastructure stood at $500 million and were rising.
A month more of Israeli air strikes and
artillery shells and the figure has rocketed. It is, of course, difficult to
say precisely how much it will cost to transform heaps of rubble into the
roads, bridges and homes they once were, but current predictions point to
around $3.6 billion.
From bad to worse
There is never a good time to see your
country’s infrastructure blown apart but, for Lebanon, the timing of this
conflict couldn’t really have been much worse. Its public debt makes up 174 per
cent of its GDP and the government has been looking for $7 billion in order to
reduce interest payments on its liabilities. The IMF recently stated that Lebanon
stood on the brink of an economic crisis.
Lebanon’s economy, however, was slowly
starting to pick up; growth forecasts had been estimated at about five per cent
this year, up one per cent on last year, exports were expected to increase by
at least 40 per cent and the country was looking forward to a thriving summer
holiday season.
But Israel’s
military offensive began in mid July, at the start of the peak period, and
while the cost of repairing the ever worsening bomb damage grew by the day, so
too did the losses to Lebanon’s
tourism industry, which usually
contributes up to 15 per cent of the GDP.
One
of the worst aspects of the five week onslaught must have been seeing so much
of the $50 billion spent rebuilding the country after the civil war ended in
1990 quite literally go up in smoke. One government official was quoted
last week as saying that Lebanon
suffered as much damage in one month of Israeli aggression as it did in nearly
15 years of civil war.
Backing up rhetoric with money
Lebanon’s plight was the focus of an emergency meeting of the Arab League
in Cairo on
Sunday and the war ravaged nation was probably disappointed with the outcome,
as no firm proposals were put forward regarding reconstruction strategies.
Arab
leaders at the summit naturally voiced plenty of support for Lebanon and, behind the rhetoric,
actions are now starting to back up the words. Kuwait
used the conference to declare that it would give $800 million to the reconstruction efforts, while Saudi Arabia has already pledged $500 million.
Lebanon will certainly need further support from the Gulf states to pick itself up quickly, and
it seems that these countries are beginning to take a pro-active stance. Qatar is to rebuild two towns in southern
Lebanon,
while the UAE has pledged to help rebuild vital amenities such as schools and
hospitals.
Prior to the conflict, Lebanon
was receiving significant investment from the Gulf. UAE businesses alone had
ploughed $2.7 billion into various ventures, the majority being in the real
estate sector. Once the truce came into effect last week, the share prices of
UAE based cement producers rose sharply, in anticipation of a construction
frenzy in Lebanon
and increased demands for cement across the region.
It seems that, as long as the truce holds and
businesses can undertake projects securely, then Lebanon might once again become a
keen investment target for Gulf based business groups.
Double-edged donations
A donor
conference takes place next week in Sweden
but various nations are making commitments to Lebanon
ahead of that, with the United States pledging $230 million. But
commentators such as Mary Robinson, the former UN Commissioner for Human Rights
and ex-President of Ireland,
have remarked that the US
could possibly have used its influence over Israel to bring a much swifter
conclusion to the fighting. If that had transpired, then Lebanon might not now be facing
such a major task in rebuilding its homes and its economy.