Patrick Martin
Le compagnie USA perdono l’asta per i giacimenti petroliferi in Irak
+ Le Monde, 091212, All’asta dei campi petroliferi iracheni, Lukoil mangia la pedina a Total
● La maggior parte dei diritti di esplorazione e sviluppo dei campi petroliferi iracheni è stata assegnata a joint venture di gruppi europei ed asiatici (Cina, Russia, Malesia ed Angola).
o Hanno partecipato all’asta 45 compagnie petrolifere, tra cui le major internazionali.
o Le società petrolifere USA hanno avuto un ruolo chiave per una sola delle 10 concessioni messe in gara, ed una parte secondaria in una seconda concessione.
o Secondo analisti le società asiatiche hanno potuto fare offerte inferiori alle americane grazie alle loro competenze tecniche unite a costi del lavoro relativamente bassi.
o I gruppi americani devono calcolare nei costi anche quelli della sicurezza per le strutture petrolifere da essi gestiti, bersaglio preferito dagli attacchi dei ribelli.
● Tesi WSWS: questo è il segnale del declino dell’influenza del capitalismo USA, perfino in un paese come l’Irak da essi occupato militarmente.
● La cinese China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) è stata la più aggressiva;
o hanno vinto concessioni le russe Lukoil e Gazprom, e le europee Royal Dutch Shell, ENI (Italia), British Petroleum, Statoil (Norvegia) e Total (Francia).
o Con tre concessioni, Petronas, la società petrolifera statale della Malesia, è quella che ne ha vinto di più.
o Sonangol, la società petrolifera statale dell’Angola ne ha vinte due.
– Le concessioni in gara erano 15, per quasi 40 MD di barili di riserve provate, circa 1/3 del totale iracheno di 115 MD b., le terze maggiori mondiali, dopo quelle di Iran ed Arabia Saudita, ma scoperti però oltre 25 anni fa’, prima che le sanzioni internazionali bloccassero il flusso di investimenti;
o si reputa che l’Irak possegga riserve non ancora scoperte ricche quanto quelle già note;
o non ci sono state offerte per 5 concessioni, situate in aree disputate dai ribelli o politicamente instabili nel Centro e Nord: Baghdad-Est (riserve stimate 8,10 md b.), Eastern Fields (367 Md b.); tre piccoli campi chiamati Middle Furat Centro, 547 mn. b.).
– I campi più contesi sono stati quelli nel Sud Irak, attorno a Basra.
– Il ministro iracheno per il petrolio, non accettando la proposta USA di contratti di (production sharing condivisione della produzione), ha offerto contratti ventennali, secondo i quali le società petrolifere riceveranno un ammontare forfetario per barile (accettati $1,35-1,50/b), ogni aumento del prezzo del petrolio (attualmente oltre i $75/b) andrà al governo iracheno.
– I contratti dovrebbero consentire l’aumento della produzione di petrolio dai 2,5 mn. di b/g attuali a 12 mn b/g per il 2016, il doppio del livello prima dell’invasione USA, e maggiore dell’attuale produzione dell’Arabia Saudita.
● Il maggior giacimento è quello di Majnoon, nel Sud (riserve stimate 12,58MD barili) è stato conquistato dal consorzio Shell-Petronas, che ha vinto sull’offerta del consorzio Total-CNPC. (produzione prevista dagli attuali 45 900 b/g -à 1,8 mn. b/g, per il 2019)
o A fine anni 1990 il campo di Majnoon era stato promesso da Saddam Hussein a Total.
● Il secondo maggiore, West Qurna Phase 2 (riserve per 12,8 MD barili) è andato al consorzio guidato con l’85% dalla russa Lukoil (il secondo maggior gruppo russo), il cui contratto per lo stesso giacimento del 1997 venne rinnegato poi da Saddam Hussein. Del consorzio fa parte anche la norvegese StatoilHydro, con il 15%. Hanno chiesto $1,15 per barile e posto l’obiettivo di 1,8 mn. b/g.
o Il consorzio russo-norvegese ha vinto su Total, sul consorzio composto da Petronas (Malesia), Pertamina (Indonesia) e PetroVietnam, e sulla coalizione BP (GB) e CNPC (Cina).
● Petronas, CNPC e Total hanno avuto il giacimento di Halfaya, superando tre altri consorzi europei ed asiatici. (produzione prevista dagli attuali 3 100 b/g à 535 000 b/g, per il 2022).
● Il campo di Garraf (Centro Irak, 863 mn. barili), è andato al consorzio Petronas (60%) e Japex (40%, Giappone), prezzo richiesto $1,49/b e obiettivo produzione 230 000 b/g.
● Il campo Badra (Est, riserve stimate 109 mn barili) è stato assegnato al consorzio Gazprom (40%)-TPAO (10%, Turchia)- Kogas (30%, Sud Corea)-Petronas (20%), l’unico in lizza, chiesti $6/b e poi scesi a $5,5/b, obiettivo 170 000 b/g.
● Il campo di Najmah (privincia di NInive, Nord; 858 mn. barili), vinto dall’angolano Sonangol, $6/b, obiettivo 110 000 b/g. Sonangol ha vinto anche il campo di Qaiyarah, nella stessa provincia, riserve stimate 807 mn. b.; prezzo $5/b, obiettivo 120 000 b/g.
– Delle compagnie petrolifere americane solo una ha presentato un’offerta nell’ultima gara; ExxonMobil e Occidental Petroleum hanno vinto due offerte in precedenza.
– Ad inizio estate BP e CNPC hanno vinto un contratto per il campo di Rumaila, il maggiore del mondo, riserve provate 17,8 MD barili.
– ENI, Occidental Petroleum e Korea Gas hannosiglato accordo per sviluppo campo di Zubayr, riserve stimate 4,1 MD;
– ExxonMobil e Shell, siglato contratto per sviluppo West Qurna Phase 1, stimati 8,6 MD barili.
– Il costo di produzione del petrolio iracheno è molto basso, sui $1,50-2,25 per barile, in competizione con l’Arabia Saudita, e contro i $20/b delle sabbie petrolifere del Canada; il maggior problema è la sostituzione dell’equipaggiamento ormai obsoleto.
– Il governo iracheno ha speso oltre $8MD per aumentare la capacità di produzione, ma ne abbisogna di altri $50MD, che cerca dai gruppi internazionali.
– I contratti sono piuttosto precari, anche perché il governo centrale iracheno non è riuscito a varare una legge di regolamento sul settore, e a fornire copertura legale agli investitori esteri.
Due anni fa il governo regionale curdo ha invitato unilateralmente le società occidentali, a contrastare questa iniziativa il governo centrale sta aprendo al capitale estero i campi del Sud.
Published by the International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI)
– In a clear signal of the declining influence of American capitalism, even in a country conquered and occupied by the US military, companies from China, Russia, Malaysia and Angola, along with several European oil giants, won most of the rights for exploration and development of Iraq’s oil fields.
– The concessions were awarded Friday and Saturday by the Iraqi oil ministry, after a competitive auction in which joint ventures of European and Asian companies won the lion’s share. Of the ten concessions awarded so far, including in an earlier auction, US-based companies will play the lead role in only one, while getting a lesser share in a second.
– The most aggressive bidder was the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), while Lukoil and Gazprom of Russia, and European firms like Royal Dutch Shell, ENI (Italy), British Petroleum, Statoil (Norway) and Total (France) all won bids. Petronas, the state-owned Malaysian oil company, won the most bids, three, while the Angolan state oil company Sonangol won two.
– A total of 15 oil fields were put up for bidding,
– but five received no bids, because they are located in areas in the center and north of Iraq still contested by insurgents or politically unstable, and considered too risky for significant investment. A sixth field drew only one bid.
– The main interest was in oil fields in the southern part of the country, around Basra.
– The oil ministry offered fields with nearly 40 billion barrels in proven reserves, about one-third of Iraq’s 115 billion total.
– Iraq has the world’s third-largest proven reserves, trailing only Iran and Saudi Arabia, but most of these were discovered more than 25 years ago, before international sanctions cut off the flow of investment capital. The country is believed to have undiscovered reserves that could be as extensive as the oil already known to exist.
– Discarding the production-sharing contracts initially proposed by US occupation officials—a structure that would have given the bulk of profits to the multinationals—the oil ministry offered 20-year service contracts in which the oil companies would receive a flat fee per barrel and any increase in oil prices will go to the Iraqi government.
– The winning bidders agreed to accept fees in the range of $1.35 to $1.50 per barrel of oil, with the market price for oil now over $75 a barrel. According to oil minister Hussein Shahristani, the deals will allow Iraq to increase its oil output from the current level of 2.5 million barrels a day to as many as 12 million barrels a day in 2016, double the production level before the US invasion
– and more than Saudi Arabia produces today.
– The biggest single field, Majnoon in the south, with an estimated 12.58 billion barrels in reserves, nearly a third of the total offered, was won by a combination of Shell and Petronas, which underbid the rival consortium of Total and CNPC. The Shell-Petronas consortium agreed to raise production from the current 45,900 barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day by 2019.
– The second largest field, West Qurna Phase 2, with some 12 billion barrels in reserves, was awarded to a consortium led by Lukoil, Russia’s second largest energy company. Lukoil had previously signed a contract to develop West Qurna Phase 2 in 1997, but Iraqi president Saddam Hussein subsequently reneged on the deal.
– For the Halfaya field, with an estimated 4.1 billion barrels, Petronas, CNPC and Total submitted the winning bids, beating three other European and Asian consortiums. Output would increase from 3,100 barrels per day to 535,000 barrels per day by 2022.
– The poor showing of the American-based oil companies was predictable, since seven of them registered and paid fees to participate, but only one actually submitted a bid to the latest auction. Two US companies, ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum, won bids during an earlier auction.
– In an early summer decision, BP and CNPC won a contract to run the Rumaila oil field, the biggest in the world, with 17.8 billion barrels in proven reserves.
– ENI, Occidental Petroleum and Korea Gas signed an agreement last month to develop the Zubayr field, with an estimated 4.1 billion barrels in reserves.
– ExxonMobil and Shell signed a contract to develop West Qurna Phase 1, believe to hold 8.6 billion barrels.
– Industry analysts cited two main reasons for the failure of the US companies. The European-Asian consortiums were able to combine technical expertise and relatively lower labor costs, allowing them to accept a lower per-barrel fee.
– More significantly, the US companies needed higher fees to offset the substantially higher security costs they face in Iraq, due to the widespread popular hostility to the US occupation. Any US-run oil facility in Iraq would be a high-profile target for insurgent attack, and a successful attack could lead to colossal losses.
– Iraq’s enormous oil resources were a major factor in the Bush administration decision to invade and conquer the country. Vice President Richard Cheney’s energy task force, which held closed-door meetings early in 2001, reportedly pored over maps of Iraq as part of the process of determining the source of future US oil supplies.
– US oil companies were kicked out of Iraq in 1972, along with all the other multinationals, when the Baathist regime in power at the time nationalized the oil industry.
– The cost of production for Iraqi oil is very low, about $1.50 to $2.25 a barrel, rivaling Saudi Arabia’s. This compares to $20 a barrel in Canada’s tar sands, and figures in between for most offshore oil drilling, as in the Gulf of Mexico. The main difficulty is replacing equipment that is either outdated, because of the protracted economic sanctions, or destroyed by years of war and civil war.
– Iraqi oil minister Shahristani said that the government has spent more than $8 billion trying to increase capacity, but needs $50 billion more, which it must seek from the global oil industry.
– The deals are precarious not only because of the ongoing security issues, but because the legal position of the multinational firms is uncertain. Despite constant prodding from Washington, the Iraqi parliament has failed to adopt a law to regulate the oil industry and give legal protection to foreign investors.
The Kurdish regional government took unilateral action two years ago to invite Western exploration companies into the provinces it controls. The national government is now following suit, opening up the massive southern oil fields to foreign capital.
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Aux enchères de champs pétrolifères irakiens, Loukoil dame le pion à Total
LEMONDE.FR | 12.12.09 | 10h29 • Mis à jour le 12.12.09 | 10h30
– Le consortium mené par le russe Loukoil a remporté l’exploitation du champ pétrolifère géant de Kourna-ouest 2 dans le sud de l’Irak, au dernier jour samedi des enchères qui ont vu l’attribution de sept champs au total à plusieurs compagnies étrangères.
– "Nous annonçons que Loukoil a remporté le contrat pour développer le champ de Kourna-ouest 2 et nous allons signer avec lui un contrat préliminaire", a annoncé à Bagdad le ministre du pétrole Hussein Chahristani. Le chef de file Loukoil (85 %) et le norvégien StatoilHydro (15 %) ont proposé d’être rémunérés 1,15 dollar par baril et de produire 1,8 million de barils par jour. Kourna-ouest 2, le plus important des champs pétrolifères mis aux enchères vendredi et samedi, recèle 12,8 milliards de barils.
– Le cartel russo-norvégien l’a emporté sur le français Total, le consortium composé du malaisien Petronas, de l’indonésien Pertamina et du vietnamien PetroVietnam, et sur la coalition britannique BP et le chinois CNPC.
– Par ailleurs, le champ de Garraf (centre) qui recèle 863 millions de barils, a été attribué au consortium composé du malaisien Petronas (60 %) et du japonais Japex (40 %) qui a proposé d’être rétribué pour ses services 1,49 dollar par baril et de produire 230 000 bj.
– Le champ pétrolier de Badra (est), dont les réserves sont estimées à 109 millions de barils, a été remporté par une coalition menée par le russe Gazprom (40 %) et incluant le turc TPAO (10 %) le sud-coréen Kogas (30 %) et le malaisien Petronas (20%). Seule en lice, cette coalition avait proposé d’être rémunéré 6 dollars et de produire 170.000 bj mais elle a finalement accepté de ne recevoir que 5,5 dollars.
– Le champ de Najmah (dans la province de Ninive, nord), qui recèle des réserves de 858 millions de barils, a été remporté par l’angolais Sonangol, qui a proposé d’être rémunéré 6 dollars par baril et de porter la production à 110.000 bj. Cette compagnie a déjà remporté vendredi dans la même province le champ de Qaiyarah, dont les réserves sont estimées à 807 millions de barils. Elle sera rémunéré 5 dollars par baril et s’est engagée à produire 120.000 bj.
– Avec les sept champs attribués depuis vendredi, l’Irak serait en mesure de produire dans les prochaines années 4,765 millions bj supplémentaires, ce qui en ferait le principal rival de l’Arabie saoudite. Il produit actuellement 2 mbj.
– En revanche, Bagdad-est, avec des réserves de 8,10 milliards de barils, et Eastern Fields (est) dont les réserves s’élèvent à 367 millions de barils, ainsi que trois petits champs regroupés sous le nom de "Middle Furat" (centre), dont les réserves totales sont 547 millions de barils, n’ont pas trouvé preneur.
– En ouvrant la séance vendredi qui réunissait 45 compagnies, dont les grandes majors internationales, le premier ministre Nouri al-Maliki a assuré que "les compagnies seront protégées par le gouvernement". L’Irak possède les troisièmes réserves au monde avec 115 milliards de barils.