L’Europa entra nella nuova contesa per l’Africa
– Si sta intensificando l’impegno dell’Europa in Africa Centrale ed Orientale, dalla Tanzania all’Etiopia in competizione con la Cina.
o L’instabilità geopolitica dell’Africa è concentrata attualmente nel conflitto tra Nord e Sud Sudan.
– Se nel 1898, l’incidente di Fashoda, l’attuale città di Kodok in Sud Sudan, vide scontrarsi gli interessi coloniali di Francia e GB nella cosiddetta Contesa per l’Africa,
o oggi Parigi e Londra + USA si alleano per conquistarsi una nuova sfera di influenza occidentale in Africa; è da vedere se sarà o meno alle spese degli interessi cinesi.
– Europa e Usa conducono missioni militari; la Cina, dal punto di vista militare, mantiene la sua politica di “non interferenza” negli affari interni dei paesi africani:
o la campagna militare americana contro il gruppo ribelle LRA (Lord’s Resistance Army) è un cavallo di Troia per gli interessi americani nella regione dei Grandi Laghi.
o Contro LRA, dall’ottobre 2011 gli Usa hanno dispiegato 100 unità operative speciali in Uganda, Sud Sudan, Rep. Centrafricana e Rep. Democratica del Congo
o La Ue ha destinato “aiuti umanitari” per $12mn. alle vittime delle milizie LRA, nel quadro degli interventi militari Onu+Unione Africana (UA) contro LRA, a cui la UE ha aderito nel dic. 2011, finanziando la costruzione di strutture logistiche.
o La UE ha addestrato forze della missione AMISOM della UA, che sotto mandato ONU sta conducendo operazioni militari in Somalia.
o Grazie ai finanziamenti UE e CdS Onu, Amisom aumenterà di 5 000 soldati il suo contingente.
– La UE ha deciso di ampliare durata e mandato della missione ATALANTA nell’Oceano Indiano (la prima operazione navale della UE) contro i pirati somali, iniziata nel 2008, con il permesso alle sue navi da guerra di attaccare obiettivi di terra e di mare.
o L’estensione di due anni, fino al dic. 2014, della missione anti-pirateria della UE costerà $19,7mn.
– La UE ha dato il via, nel settembre 2011 assieme alla Turchia, al Gruppo di lavoro per il Corno d’Africa, nel quadro del Forum per l’anti-terrorismo globale (GCTF), presieduto da Usa e Turchia.
– In Africa Orientale, al di là delle operazioni speciali americane in Somalia, sono presenti i militari francesi e britannici:
o dei complessivi 8 000 soldati francesi in Africa 2 850 sono a Djibuti (che ospita anche un’importante base militare Usa);
o UK e Kenya continuano la stretta collaborazione per l’anti-terrorismo.
– La secessione del Sud Sudan (luglio 2011), dopo decenni di guerra civile, ha aperto la lotta per le risorse petrolifere.
o La maggior parte dei giacimenti è situato nel Sud, ora indipendente,
o mentre gli oleodotti che attraversano il paese vanno verso il terminal di Port Sudan, nel Nord.
o Nel 2011, l’export di petrolio complessivo sudanese è stato di circa 330 000 b/g, quasi tutti verso i mercati asiatici; 220 000 b/g importati dalla Cina, pari al 5% del totale del suo import petrolifero.
o Nella disputa con Khartoum sui pedaggi per il trasporto del greggio, a gennaio il governo di Juba, del Sud, ha deciso di arrestare l’estrazione e l’esportazione verso Port Sudan
o Juba ha messo in discussione i contratti petroliferi sottoscritti prima della secessione dal governo centrale di Khartoum con le compagnie petrolifere cinesi che operano entro i suoi confini (Petrodar, un consorzio sino-malese).
– Sarebbe questa una mossa per sostituirle con i gruppi occidentali, interessati allo sviluppo petrolifero della Great African Rift Valley.
o l’Anglo-irlandese Tullow Oil ha ad es. scoperto di recente giacimenti petroliferi nella regione di Turkana, N-O in Kenia,
o scoperta che ha una grande importanza geo-strategica, dato che la regione del Lago Turkana è al centro del progettato corridoio LAPPSET (Porto di Lamu, Sud Sudan, Etiopia), che prevede un oleodotto di 2000 km collegante i giacimenti del Sud Sudan alla città costiera keniota di Lamu, con una diramazione verso l’Etiopia, per eventuali scoperte petrolifere nella sua regione di S-E, l’Ogaden.
o L’oleodotto Juba-Lamu offre un’alternativa a quello verso Port Sudan; ma il problema per i tre paesi coinvolti nel progetto è quello di trovare investimenti per LAPPSET, che né UE, né Usa, né Cina sembrano disposti a fornire, data l’instabilità dell’area.
– Tullow Oil ha estratto greggio anche in Uganda, e sta conducendo prospezioni in Etiopia.
o La recente scoperta di giacimenti attorno al lago Albert potrebbe fare dell’Uganda uno snodo energetico e commerciale;
o in vista di questo, l’Uganda ha siglato un accordo con Tanzania, Burundi e Ruanda per la costruzione di una rete ferroviaria, fino al Sud Sudan.
– Anche l’Uganda ha imparato la flessibilità strategica: benché sia un alleato Usa per l’Africa Centrale e Orientale, per il progetto che dovrebbe essere terminato entro il 2015 è stato scelto il gruppo cinese China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation.
– Gli scambi commerciali della Cina con l’Africa, nel 2010, erano di $127MD; la Cina è accusata di sfruttare i partner africani vendendo loro grandi quantità di prodotti a basso prezzo e fornendo prestiti per progetti di sviluppo e infrastrutture, in cambio di petrolio e materie prime.
– L’Europa punta sulla “cooperazione e assistenza allo sviluppo”; recente lo stanziamento di $380mn. per progetti su sicurezza alimentare, educazione e sanità in Sud Sudan.
o Il 20 marzo il Sud Sudan ha comunicato l’intenzione di aderire all’Accordo di Alleanza di Cotonou (Cotonou Partnership Agreement) tra i paesi di UE e quelli di Africa, Caraibi, Pacifico (ACP), con il quale il Sud Sudan può avere aiuti per lo sviluppo e accesso ai mercati per i suoi prodotti.
– Europa e USA tornano esplicitamente alle vecchie regole geopolitiche, in cui le questioni umanitarie passano in secondo piano rispetto a quelle politiche:
o la Commissione europea ha proposto di impedire ai paesi che non firmano EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement – l’Accordo di alleanza economica con la UE) di accedere liberamente al mercato europeo dal 1° gennaio 2014.
o Contro la proposta diversi paesi africani, compresi i leader di ACP, il parlamento europeo deciderà a giugno in merito.
Europe enters the new scramble for Africa
– While war drums keep on beating along the disputed inter-Sudanese border, Europe’s engagement in Central and East Africa is intensifying. Over the past months, by emulating the United States, the European Union[e] (EU) has multiplied its political, strategic and economic efforts in a huge swathe of Africa, from northern Tanzania to Ethiopia: an open challenge to China’s steady penetration in that region, according to several sources.
– The ongoing "geopolitical risk" in Africa, whose flashpoint is the newly-independent state of South Sudan, brings the Fashoda Incident to mind.
– Fashoda (presently the South Sudanese city of Kodok) is where the colonial designs of France and the United Kingdom materially collided in 1898, during the so-called Scramble for Africa.
o Now Paris and London join forces as part of an Euro-American bid to carve out a new Western sphere of influence in Africa:
o the question is whether or not it will be at the expense of China’s vested interests.
– The participation in military operations is what really distinguishes the African policy of Europe and the United States from that of China.
– There is a widespread conviction that the US military campaign against the weakened rebel group of Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is in reality a Trojan horse for American strategic interests in the Great Lakes region.
– Since October 2011, Washington has deployed 100 special operations units in Uganda, South Sudan, Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo to fight the LRA.
– On the contrary, China is sticking to its policy of "non-interference" in the internal affairs of African countries, at least as far as the military point of view is concerned.
– Within the United Nations and African Union-backed joint military actions against the LRA, the EU has earmarked US$12 million for humanitarian assistance to people who have suffered violence by the Joseph Kony-led militias over the past 25 years. In December 2011, the EU teamed up with the coalition fighting the LRA, financing the construction of logistical facilities.
– The EU and US have also trained the forces of the African Union[e] Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Under the United Nations’ mandate, the AMISOM is conducting armed operations in the war-torn Somalia, helping the UN-backed Transitional government to defeat the al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab militants. In February, AMISOM announced that it would strengthen its contingent with 5,000 soldiers thanks to funding from the EU and United Nations Security Council.
– As for Somalia’s age-old crisis, Brussels has decided to expand its maritime mission "ATALANTA" against Somali pirates, allowing European warships to attack both sea and land targets. The EU anti-piracy mission in the Indian Ocean, which started in 2008 to patrol shipping lane and protect humanitarian convoys, is extended to at least December 2014 and its two-year prolongation has a budget of $19.7 million.
– In addition, in February the EU also ushered in – along with Turkey – a Horn of Africa’s Working Group within the Global Counter Terrorism Forum (GCTF). The GCTF, which was launched in September 2011, is an initiative to enhance anti-terrorism cooperation and is co-chaired by Washington and Ankara.
– Over and above the US special operations across Somalia against the armed Islamist and Washington’s rooted standing in the Horn of Africa, it is worth highlighting the French and British military presence in this region.
o Out of about 8,000 soldiers that France has deployed throughout Africa, 2,850 units are stationed in Djibouti (which also hosts an important American military base), while the anti-terrorism collaboration between the United Kingdom and Kenya is becoming tighter than ever.
– The battle for handling oil resources is the big drama produced by Sudan’s break-up and resulting birth of South Sudan in July 2011, after decades of civil war.
o In 2011, Sudan and South Sudan’s combined crude exports averaged 330,000 barrels per day, mostly to Asian markets. China imported around 220,000 barrels per day: 5% of its total oil imports.
o The problem is that while most of the oil fields are now situated in landlocked South Sudan, all the pipelines go through Sudan to the northern export terminal in Port Sudan.
– That situation has led to explosive disputes on borders’ demarcation between the two neighboring countries, which have resulted in frequent skirmishes. In January, the government of South Sudan in Juba decided to stop oil’s extraction and exportation toward Port of Sudan, in a controversy over the fee that Sudan demands for the crude’s transit.
– Juba has also triggered a row with the Chinese oil companies working within its boundaries (notably with Petrodar, a Sino-Malaysian consortium), declaring its intention to review all oil contracts signed by the government of Sudan in Khartoum before the secession. Speaking to the daily Sudan Tribune on February 22, some Sudanese officials argued that "South Sudan’s threats against Chinese companies are part of a conspiracy to replace them with Western companies".
– In effect, European companies are showing interest in the oil development of the Great African Rift Valley. For instance, the Anglo-Irish Tullow Oil has recently discovered oil deposits in Kenya, in the country’s north-western region of Turkana.
– Such a discover has a great geopolitical importance, since the Turkana Lake is right in the middle of the projected "Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia Transport" (LAPPSET) corridor, which foresees a 2,000 kilometer pipeline connecting South Sudan’s oil fields to the Kenyan coastal town of Lamu. The project includes a connection to Ethiopia if oil were to be discovered in its south-eastern region of Ogaden.
– The Juba-Lamu pipeline offers South Sudan an alternative to the route going to Port Sudan. The problem for the three African countries involved in the project is to attract investments, and up to now neither the EU nor the US, as well as China, seem to be eager to fund the LAPPSET corridor in light of the permanent instability in the area.
– Tullow Oil has also extracted crude in Uganda and is leading exploration campaigns in Ethiopia. The recent discovery of oil reserves around the Lake Albert might turn Uganda into a regional energy and trade hub. In this regard, the Ugandan government in Kampala has struck a deal with Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda to realize a railway network that would stretch all the way to South Sudan.
– Kampala is generally considered to be an American ally in Central and East Africa, and the fact that the operator expected to complete this project by 2015 is a Chinese company (China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation) proves that even small or medium African countries have learnt to act with strategic flexibility.
– China’s trade with Africa touched $127 billion in 2010. Beijing is often accused of exploiting its African partner on the grounds of a well-tested scheme: inundating the African countries with its cheap products – as well as granting loans for project of developments and infrastructural investments – in return for oil and raw materials.
– On the other hand, the EU is supposed to be pursuing a different approach in dealing with African countries, focused on cooperation and assistance for development. The latest move in this direction is Brussels’ commitment to provide $380 million for projects about food security, education and healthcare in South Sudan.
– On March 20, during a meeting in Brussels with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, EU high representative for foreign affairs Catherine Ashton praised Juba’s intention to join the Cotonou Partnership Agreement between the EU and Africa, Caribbean, Pacific (ACP) countries. Under this agreement, South Sudan can obtain assistance for development and market access for its goods.
– But many African countries, and the same ACP leadership, have complained about the European Commission’s proposal to prevent countries that do not conclude an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the EU from free market access to Europe as of January 1, 2014 – the European Parliament is expected to take a decision with regard to this issue by June.
– Plainly put, the truth is that both Europe and the United States are back to the old rules of geopolitics, in which humanitarian preoccupations are shelved and economic leverage gains momentum.
– The point is that the two "belligerent" side would have room to settle disputes in East Africa, just as China is trying to devise a diplomatic line going beyond its policy of non-interference.
– At bottom, it would be in the interest of all players – Europe, United States and China – to avert a Somalia-style war in North and South Sudan, when from Nigeria to the Horn of Africa, through the Sahel region, large part of the continent is sliding into a spiral of chaos.
Emanuele Scimia is a journalist and geopolitical analyst based in Rome.