Cina e Sudafrica siglano accordi economici/ Una sfida cinese per il Rand/HSBC mira alla maggioranza nella sudafricana Nedbank

Cina e Sudafrica siglano accordi economici/ Una sfida cinese per il Rand

●    La Cina ha concentrato sul Sudafrica (SA) – uno dei paese più sviluppato nella regione –  la sua ricerca di materie prime in Africa; ne è divenuta il maggior partner commerciale, il maggior mercato estero per metalli base, e il secondo dopo il Sud Corea, per l’export di rame (24%).

o   La Cina serve al SA per diminuire la dipendenza economica dalle altre potenze.

●    Negli ultimi anni la forte domanda di risorse cinese ha contribuito a sostenere l’economia sudafricana.

●    Viceversa, un forte rallentamento dell’economia cinese potrebbe colpire negativamente quella s-a.

●    Ma la forte rivalutazione del rand (+40% dal 2008, a breve distanza dal real brasiliano, dati Morgan Stanley) – in atto nonostante l’instabilità dei fondamentali dell’economia sudafricana, inflazione al 5%, alta e persistente disoccupazione e le forti lotte operaie degli ultimi mesi,dovuta principalmente alle relazioni commerciali con la Cina – oltre che alla crisi  int.le e a quella del debito in Europa –

●    costituisce un forte svantaggio per l’export, e preoccupa il governo sudafricano che propone controlli sui capitali, imposte sul capitale in entrata.

●    Gli scambi con la Cina hanno causato un forte deficit commerciale per il Sudafrica:

o   nel 2009 ha tratto dalla Cina il 13% del suo import totale (70,8 MD di rand, pari a $9.58MD),

o   e vi ha esportato l’11% del suo totale (48,7MD di rand, pari a $6,60 MD).

– Durante la visita del presidente sudafricano Zuma a Pechino, visita che segue quella in Brasile, Russia e India

o   siglati oltre 10 accordi economici – di cui non è noto il valore – segnalano l’interesse della Cina su energia e risorse del Sudafrica, per alimentare la sua forte crescita economica.

o   accordo quadro tra il sudafricano Kermas Mining Fund LP e China Metallurgical Group Corp., per la costruzione e le infrastrutture nel N-E del SA di una miniera di ferro e titanio, produzione annuale 1,2 mn. di tonn. di ferro grezzo e 680 000 tonn. di biossido di titanio;

o   China National Nuclear Corp. sta negoziando la costruzione di una centrale nucleare in SA.,

§ (la Cina sta preparandosi ad essere autosufficiente nella tecnologia nucleare avanzata, sta espandendo il numero di reattori all’interno, e intende esportare tecnologia nucleare in paesi come Vietnam, Bielorussia e Argentina.)

o   Siglato un memorandum d’intesa per una cooperazione nucleare tra i due paesi tra il sudafricano (s-a) Standard Bank Group Ltd. e Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd, il maggior istituto di prestito della Cina, che detiene una quota di minoranza in Standard Bank. Le due banche lavorano con China Guangdong Nuclear Power Co. per impegnare i rispettivi governi.

o   Standard Bank ha siglato un accordo di cooperai zone con il gruppo statale cinese China Railway Group Ltd, per investimenti in progetti nelle ferrovie africane.

o   Settore assicurazioni malattie: il s-a Discovery Holdings Ltd acquisterà il 20% del cinese Ping An Health Insurance Co (190-200 mn. yuan).

o   Tecnologia per la trasmissione di elettricità: memorandum d’intesa per la cooperai zone tra State Grid Corpo f China e Trans-Africa Projects.

1° riquadro: export annuali sudafricani in Cina in MD di Rand, 2005-2010;

2° riquadro: variazione del valore del Rand rispetto al $, 2008-2010; X$= 10 Rand

– Pechino intende incoraggiare gli investimenti dei gruppi cinesi in Sudafrica, per minerario, risorse e altri settori ad alto valore aggiunto.

– Il Sudafrica vorrebbe che la Cina acquistasse maggiori quantità di merci sudafricane per un maggiore equilibrio commerciale.

Sudafrica, GB, Cina, banche e finanza

HSBC mira alla maggioranza nella sudafricana Nedbank

NISHA GOPALAN e ROBB M. STEWART

●    HSBC Holdings PLC,[1] la maggiore banca europea per capitalizzazione, sta negoziando l’acquisizione della quota di controllo della s-a Nedbank Group Ltd ($9,25MD capitalizzazione, la 4a s-a per valore di mercato), con Old Mutual PLC (con sede a Londra e proprietario di maggioranza di Nedbank, con il 51,1%);

o   l’operazione – che se riesce sarebbe una delle maggiori fusioni-acquisizioni in Sudafrica, servirebbe ad HSBC, intenzionata a crescere in Asia e altri mercati emergenti, a competere nei mercati africani, con le banche cinesi ed altri investitori.

o   HSBC non è forte in Africa; acquisendo Nedbank che ha molti clienti piccoli, HSBC modifica la sua strategia, che la lega in genere a grossi clienti.

– C’è il rischio che l’operazione venga bloccata dal governo s-a, che ha fatto fallire parzialmente la fusione dell’operatore di tel. mobile MTN Group con l’indiano Bhartu Airtel, per non perdere il controllo di un campione nazionale.

o   Anche altre asiatiche sono interessate a Nedbank, ma poche possono permetterselo, dato il prezzo troppo alto (sui $7MD).

– nel 2005 la britannica Barclays PLC ha acquisto il controllo di Absa Group Ltd, il maggiore prestatore s-a al minuto;

– Indusrial $ Commercial Bank of China Ltd ha acquisito il 20% di Standard Bank, la maggiore banca africana per capitalizzazione.

China and South Africa Sign Business Deals

–   BEIJING—China and South Africa signed a raft of commercial deals in mining, finance, nuclear energy and other sectors during a visit by South African President Jacob Zuma, as Beijing strengthens its commercial ties with Africa’s largest economy.

–   The list of more than 10 deals, the total value of which wasn’t announced, reflects China’s focus on expanding its resources and energy reach in South Africa to fuel continued growth in China’s booming economy, which is on pace to surpass Japan’s this year as the second largest after the U.S. China’s demand for resources has lent great support to South Africa’s economy as well as boosting its currency, the rand, in recent years.

–   Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Gao Hucheng said Beijing will encourage domestic companies to invest in South Africa’s mining and resources sectors as well as higher value-added sectors. But senior South African officials also indicated some discontent with the trade relationship. They called on China not to focus exclusively on investing in raw materials and other "primary goods," and to buy more value-added goods from South Africa to help promote more balanced trade.

–   "We want to work together with China to try to address that so we have a more equitable balance of trade, in terms of the composition of trade as well as in terms of the actual value," South African Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies said at a briefing.

–   Mr. Davies also said South Africa sees China as something of a model for its currency policy. China’s defense of its competitive currency as part of its industrial development is a "lesson" for South Africa, he said, adding that the rand is too volatile. There is a consensus that South Africa needs a more competitive and stable currency, Mr. Davies said, but the rand "has appreciated too much" in the wake of Europe’s debt crisis this year and the government isn’t hoping to see a further appreciation.

–   China is South Africa’s top trading partner, and South Africa’s economy—more developed than many others in the region—has been a focal point of a broader Chinese push into the continent aimed at securing resources and expanding China’s international clout. But South Africa has been frustrated by its sizable trade deficit with China.

–   South Africa bought 70.8 billion rand ($9.58 billion) of Chinese goods last year, 13% of its total imports, while exporting 48.7 billion rand worth to China, about 11% of the total.

o    China is the top overseas market for South African base metals, and the second-biggest destination for South African copper exports, after South Korea, at nearly 24%.

–   Among deals announced Tuesday, China Metallurgical Group Corp. said it will construct an iron-titanium mine in South Africa. The mine will have annual production of 1.2 million tons of pig iron and 680,000 tons of titanium dioxide, Xu Yongjie, a vice president of MCC International Inc., a China Metallurgical unit, said on the sidelines of the China-South Africa Business Forum.

–   China Metallurgical’s framework agreement, signed with Kermas Mining Fund LP, sets the Chinese company as the main contractor for building the mine, which is located in northeastern South Africa, as well as for infrastructure for the mine, Mr. Xu said. Other details have yet to be finalized, he said.

–   Separately, an official at China National Nuclear Corp. said it is in talks to build a nuclear-power plant in South Africa. A deal on that would mark the latest sign that China is gearing up to export nuclear technology at the same time as it rapidly expands its domestic reactor fleet. The talks involve the potential transfer of nuclear technology to South Africa, although nothing concrete was expected to be signed during President Zuma’s visit, the official said.

–   China is working to become self-sufficient in advanced nuclear technology so that it doesn’t need to award multibillion-dollar contracts to foreign companies to build domestic plants in the future. It is also looking at selling nuclear technology overseas in countries such as Vietnam, Belarus and Argentina.

–   Meanwhile, Standard Bank Group Ltd. announced a memorandum of understanding with Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., China’s largest lender, which owns a minority stake in Standard Bank, to promote nuclear cooperation between the countries, according to a South African government statement. The two banks are working with China Guangdong Nuclear Power Co. to engage with the Chinese and South African governments, the statement said.

–   Standard Bank also signed a cooperation agreement with state-run China Railway Group Ltd. on investments in African rail projects.

–   South African health-care insurer Discovery Holdings Ltd. agreed to pay between 190 million yuan ($27.9 million) and 200 million yuan for a 20% stake in Ping An Health Insurance Co., Ping An Chief Executive Lu Min said Tuesday.

–   And State Grid Corp. of China and Trans-Africa Projects signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in electric power transmission technology: The parties agreed to form a committee that will include a number of experts on both sides to exchange technical information.

–   Mr. Davies, the South African minister, brushed off concerns that China looms too large in Africa, saying competition for influence and for resources there has also helped give local countries there more choices. "We actually welcome the fact that China has a presence," he said. "We welcome a multiplicity of players, so we simply don’t just have to relate to the established trading partners of the developed world."

A Chinese Challenge for Rand

South Africa Weighs Cooling Currency, Which Has Been Juiced by Asia Demand

LONDON—As South African President Jacob Zuma visits China this week, he will be acutely aware of how important the world’s largest country is to his own nation’s currency.

–   South Africa’s rand is sky high despite shaky economic fundamentals and violent strikes in recent months. The government is so concerned about the rand’s rise, and its effect on exports, that it is considering a tax on financial inflows to bring the currency back down, a move that could supercharge the country’s cost of borrowing.

–   And yet, the main factor behind the rand’s strength, and a possible drop in the future, is China, South Africa’s biggest trade partner and a major consumer of its metals exports. Mr. Zuma wants to strengthen those ties, which is why he is visiting China this week as the head of a delegation of business and political leaders. The China trip comes after similar ventures to Brazil, Russia and India, the other so-called BRIC countries.

–   For now, the Chinese economy is motoring along fine, indirectly supporting South Africa and the rand in the process. But if China slows down sharply, the rand could take a hit, too.

–   South Africa’s currency is a symbol of big themes in global financial markets over the past two years. Along with other emerging-market currencies, the rand plunged lower as investors fled to safety when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed in 2008. Since then, however, it has become one of the fastest-climbing currencies in the world.

–   In real terms, the rand has strengthened about 40% over that period, data from Morgan Stanley show, putting the rand a shade behind the Brazilian real in the global rankings.

–   Strong currencies make exports appear more expensive abroad and rarely please politicians. South Africa is no exception. This month, a document released by its ruling African National Congress party proposed capital controls, taxes on inflows, as a way to rein in the currency. The document, which lays out topics for discussion at September’s party assembly, noted that "the state must respond more effectively to factors that impose unnecessary costs on business and the economy, notably around the value of the rand."

While currency analysts criticized the party’s plans, they also expressed doubts over its effects, and the rand barely moved.

–   Brazil took similar steps last year, and they did nothing in the long term to hold down its currency.

"It’s a very difficult decision, and one they may not take," André Roux, co-head of global fixed income at Investec Asset Management in Cape Town, said of the government’s plans. "A slowdown in China is more of a risk. There’s a big risk there."

–   The rand’s strength comes against a backdrop of persistently high unemployment and public-sector strikes over pay that could, if successful, push South Africa’s inflation rate, already predicted to be above 5% by the end of this year, even higher.

–   Yet, with resource-hungry China, South Africa’s economy has had a strong supporter in recent years. This year, China is the top destination for South Africa’s overall exports of base metals, accounting for more than 10% of the total. It is the second-biggest destination for copper exports, after South Korea, at nearly 24%. Overall, China accounts for more than 11% of South Africa’s total exports.

The Chinese economy is expanding fast, increasing at an annual rate of 10.3% in the second quarter. Though a rapid clip, that marks a slowdown from annual growth close to 12% in the first quarter.

The danger now, analysts said, is that signs of stress in the U.S. economy could slam the brakes on Chinese growth in coming months, sending shock waves as far as South Africa.

"People are thinking that they should go with the flow on the rand as long as metals prices remain above a certain level. If something hit those metals prices, like a slowdown in China, that would hurt," said Elisabeth Gruié, an emerging-markets currencies analyst at BNP Paribas in London.

Ms. Gruié said some or all of the strains on the South African economy will drag the rand down in coming months, but like other market watchers, she struggles to see what the trigger will be.

"For the rand to start weakening, we would have to see more than strikes or talk about capital controls, we would need real facts, a shocker," she said.

HSBC Eyes Majority Stake in South Africa’s Nedbank

By NISHA GOPALAN And ROBB M. STEWART

–   HSBC Holdings PLC, Europe’s largest bank by market capitalization, has proposed a deal to buy majority control of South African lender Nedbank Group Ltd. in a move that could help it expand its operations in African markets where Chinese banks and other investors are active.

–   HSBC and London-based Old Mutual PLC, the majority owner of Nedbank with a 51.5% stake, in separate statements said they have entered exclusive negotiations on a transaction that could see HSBC make an offer to all Nedbank shareholders for a stake of up to 70%. The companies didn’t disclose a price, but at Friday’s close Nedbank had a market capitalization of $9.25 billion.

–   A person familiar with the situation told Dow Jones Newswires that a deal between HSBC, which is looking to Asia and other emerging markets for growth, and Nedbank would help HSBC take advantage of links between Africa and China.

o    He said other Asian banks were interested in Nedbank, "but given this is an around $7 billion deal, there are only a handful of banks that can spend this much."

–   If successful, the Nedbank acquisition would be HSBC’s biggest since the financial crisis and one of the biggest mergers-and-acquisition transactions in South Africa.

–   While the move fits into HSBC’s emerging-markets strategy, analysts said it is unlikely to generate quick returns. HSBC doesn’t have a large presence in Africa and will need time to build on its platform there. Acquiring a portion of Nedbank, which has many small business customers, also is a departure from HSBC’s strategy elsewhere, which has been to attract deposits and business from wealthy individuals.

–   South Africa’s "Big Four" banks have been among those seeking to gain further footholds in Africa, often with the financial assistance of partners, while banks in other parts of the world have expressed interest in the continent.

o    Britain’s Barclays PLC in 2005 bought control of Absa Group Ltd., South Africa’s largest retail lender.

o    Standard Bank Group Ltd., Africa’s largest lender by assets, in 2007 sold a 20% interest to Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd..

–   There is, however, a risk any agreement between Old Mutual and HSBC could be thwarted in South Africa. An attempt last year by cellphone network operator MTN Group Ltd. to merge with India’s Bharti Airtel Ltd. failed, in part, because of concerns by the South African government over control of a company seen as a national champion. South Africa’s banking regulator said Monday that it would examine any deal and said it was "by no means a done deal."

Old Mutual Chief Executive Officer Julian Roberts said Monday that he was hopeful regulators would approve the proposed deal. "We would not have gone this far if we were not hopeful we would be successful, but clearly we have to go through the formal process," he said.

"If there aren’t any problems, the deal could close by November," the person familiar with the matter said.

–   Old Mutual said the proceeds from any sale would be partially reinvested in South Africa and would be an opportunity to support black economic empowerment, a government initiative aimed at bringing black South Africans discriminated against under apartheid rule into the mainstream economy.

–   Nedbank, South Africa’s fourth-largest lender by market value, traces its history back to the 1830s and has been majority owned by Old Mutual since 1986.

–   Credit Suisse Group is advising Nedbank and Lazard Ltd. is advising HSBC.

—Sara Schaefer Muñoz and Digby Larner contributed to this article.