Grecia – Scioperi contro il programma di austerità
● Ondata di scioperi in Grecia contro il programma di risparmi del governo, bloccato il trasporto pubblico, le scuole, gli ospedali.
o parola d’ordine degli scioperanti: “I ricchi devono pagare la crisi”, che hanno scagliato pietre contro il parlamento che ha approvato il nuovo pacchetto di risparmi, di €4,8MD, per un totale solo quest’anno di €16MD.
o A margine della protesta scontri con la polizia che ha usato lacrimogeni e granate accecanti; ad Atene è stato attaccato un leader sindacale vicino ai socialisti da giovane dimostranti che l’hanno accusato di aver tradito “la causa del movimento operaio”.
– I €5MD di obbligazioni statali immesse ieri sul mercato sono stati velocemente acquistati (interesse al 6%), soprattutto da investitori britannici (il 20% degli investitori) e tedeschi (il 14%); molto interessati anche investitori greci (23%) – la quota greca doveva rimanere sotto il 25%.
L’aiuto FMI per la Grecia è una prospettiva rischiosa
● Per i dirigenti greci che devono far fronte ad ampie proteste popolari, compresa l’occupazione del ministero Finanze, la minaccia di rivolgersi all’FMI può essere utile,
o per scaricare la colpa delle misure di risparmio sull’odiato FMI;
o ma gli investitori potrebbero far salire i costi del prestito se pensano sia possibile l’intervento FMI.
● Con la sua minaccia di rivolgersi all’FMI se non trova risposta nella UE, il governo greco sta preparando le condizioni per un potenziale conflitto con Germania, Francia e altri paesi europei,
o che potrebbe far dubitare della sostenibilità del progetto euro.
– Mentre l’opinione tedesca è fortemente contraria a pagare per aiutare al Grecia,
o le banche tedesche sottoscrivono buona parte del debito del continente ed esercitano una forte influenza sulla politica interna.
o La Germania non vuole che le sue banche falliscano perché fallisce la Grecia;
o le recenti notizie sui forti scioperi in Grecia potrebbero far cambiare opinione alla Germania sull’intervento FMI, come mezzo per ridurre la dipendenza dai fondi tedeschi.
– I politici di diversi paesi dell’area euro considerano la questione greca una questione di famiglia e vogliono lavare i panni sporchi in casa, per dimostrare che l’Europa è in grado di risolvere da sola le proprie crisi.
– Ci sono anche lotte di potere all’interno dell’Europa, la Germania vorrebbe un suo uomo nella BCE, e l’intervento FMI potrebbe diminuire la credibilità tedesca;
– Sarkozy è in competizione politica con i capo FMI, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, ex ministro Finanze francese,e no vuole dargliela vinta sulla Grecia.
– Nessun paese dell’area euro ha chiesto prestiti all’FMI dopo l’entrata in vigore dell’€, nel 1999; e nessun grande paese europeo l’ha fatto dopo la GB nel 1976.
– NYT: se la Grecia si rivolge all’FMI, questo le chiederà all’incirca le stesse misure chieste da Germania, Francia ed altri, ma almeno avrà la garanzia di un aiuto finanziario in cambio.
– Non è neppure chiaro se Germania etc. abbaino le risorse o le capacità di monitorare la Grecia e altri membri spendaccioni per tutti gli anni necessari per uscire dai problemi:
se la Grecia deve continuare a rifinanziare il suo debito, la crisi non farà che acuirsi.
Griechenland – Streiks gegen Sparprogramm
– Eine Streikwelle gegen das Sparprogramm der griechischen Regierung hat am Freitag den öffentlichen Nahverkehr, Schulen und Krankenhäuser lahmgelegt. Während Ministerpräsident Georgios Papandreou zu Krisengesprächen aufbrach, protestierten die Gewerkschaften gegen die geplanten Kürzungen im öffentlichen Dienst und eine Anhebung der Mehrwertsteuer. Demonstranten in Athen riefen: „Die Reichen müssen für die Krise zahlen!“
– Am Rande der Proteste ist es zu Tumulten gekommen: Laut der Nachrichtenagentur AFP ist bei einer Kundgebung in Athen am Freitag ein Gewerkschaftsboss von jungen Demonstranten angegriffen und verletzt worden. Ein Reporter berichtete, die Jugendlichen hätten den Gewerkschaftsführer attackiert, als er eine Rede gegen den Sparkurs der Regierung hielt. Sie warfen ihm vor, die „Sache der Arbeiterbewegung“ verraten zu haben. Panagopoulos steht den regierenden Sozialisten nahe. Er musste ins Krankenhaus gebracht werden. Polizisten setzten Tränengas und Blendgranaten gegen Demonstranten ein, die vor dem Parlament mit Steinen warfen. Die Lage beruhigte sich am Nachmittag.
– Das griechische Parlament hat mittlerweile das milliardenschwere Sparpaket gebilligt. Das Paket hat einen Umfang von 4,8 Milliarden Euro. Insgesamt will die Regierung der sozialistischen Partei PASOK die Ausgaben in diesem Jahr um 16 Milliarden Euro reduzieren, um die Gefahr eines drohenden Staatsbankrotts zu bannen.
Papandreou hofft bei Merkel und Obama auf Unterstützung
– Ministerpräsident Giorgos Papandreou sieht sich vor seiner Reise in wichtige Hauptstädte derweil nicht als Bittsteller. Am Freitagabend beginnt seine fünftägige Reise nach Berlin, Luxemburg, Paris und Washington, in deren Verlauf er die schwere Haushaltskrise seines Landes unter anderem mit Angela Merkel und Barack Obama erörtern will.
Im Vorfeld seines Deutschlandbesuchs hatte Papandreou im Interview mit der F.A.Z. klargestellt, dass Griechenland nicht um Geld bitten wird: „Wir wollen nicht die Lehman Brothers der EU sein’“, sagte Papandreou. Er hoffe auf „Unterstützung der EU und unserer europäischen Partner, damit wir an den Märkten Kredite zu besseren Bedingungen bekommen.’“ (siehe Interview mit Giorgos Papandreou: Thema Reparationszahlungen „offene Frage“ ).
Die griechische Regierung hat sich in den vergangenen Wochen immer wieder darüber beklagt, dass das Land so hohe Zinsen am Kapitalmarkt zahlen müsse.
– Am Mittwoch hatte Papandreou neue Sparmaßnahmen in Höhe von 4,8 Milliarden Euro vorgestellt – bereits das zweite Sparprogramm, das die Regierung in Athen unter dem Druck der Europäischen Union[e] auflegt. Steuern werden erhöht, Renten eingefroren, Beamtengehälter gekürzt. Das Land befinde sich in einer „Kriegssituation“, hatte der Ministerpräsident am Dienstag gewarnt.
Vor allem britische und deutsche Anleger haben bei Staatsanleihe zugegriffen
– Am Donnerstag hat sich Griechenland dann an den Kapitalmärkten abermals viel Geld geliehen: Mit der Platzierung einer über dreimal überzeichneten Staatsanleihe, die 5 Milliarden Euro einbrachte, hat das Land etwas Zeit gewonnen (siehe Griechenland bringt zehnjährige Anleihe auf Markt). Vor allem britische und deutsche Anleger haben bei der jüngsten Staatsanleihe zugegriffen. 20 Prozent der Käufer kämen aus Großbritannien und 14 Prozent aus Deutschland, teilten die begleitenden Banken am Freitag mit. Es habe auch ein großes Interesse aus dem Inland für das dreifach überzeichnete Papier mit einer Laufzeit von zehn Jahren gegeben. Aber es sei entschieden worden, den griechischen Anteil unter 25 Prozent zu halten. Am Ende habe er bei 23 Prozent gelegen.
Anleger wurden mit hohen Zinsen gelockt – sie erhalten beim Kauf der griechischen Staatsanleihe etwa 3 Prozentpunkte mehr Rendite als bei einer deutschen Bundesanleihe mit der gleichen Laufzeit. Griechenland ist dringend auf das Geld angewiesen: Im April und Mai muss das Land Verbindlichkeiten in Höhe von über 20 Milliarden Euro ablösen.
March 4, 2010
I.M.F. Help for Greece Is a Risky Prospect
By SEWELL CHAN and LIZ ALDERMAN
Greece skirted disaster this week by persuading investors and politicians that it is finally on track to fix its finances.
– But even before the dust settles, the government is setting the stage for a potential conflict with Germany, France and other European governments that may raise doubts about the sustainability of the euro project.
– In the last two days, Greece’s finance minister has threatened to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a bailout if Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and other European politicians resist pledging aid to help Greece cope with its newfound frugality. Asking the fund for help could create a new round of financial and political turmoil by sending the message that Europe cannot resolve its own problems, analysts said.
“It would be damaging for the euro zone going forward because it would sow seeds of doubt about whether this is really a currency union, or just a group of countries that share a currency,” said Simon Tilford, the chief economist of the Center for European Reform in London.
– Policy makers and leaders of many countries that use the euro see Greece’s troubles as a problem within the family. They want a homegrown political solution to show that Europe can fix internal economic crises without outside help.
– Turning to the I.M.F., which often helps struggling emerging-market nations, is seen as a stigma that is to be avoided, a concern underscored by the European Central Bank’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, on Wednesday. “I do not trust that it would be appropriate to have the introduction of the I.M.F. as a supplier of help,” he said.
– No member of the euro zone has had to borrow from the I.M.F. since the official use of the common currency began in 1999, and no major industrialized country in Europe has done so since Britain in 1976.
– But from Greece’s perspective, the I.M.F. would force the government to swallow nearly the same bitter medicine that Germany, France and others have required — but at least Athens would receive guaranteed financial aid from the I.M.F. in return.
– In addition, it is not clear that Germany and other European governments seeking to contain the crisis have the resources or expertise to monitor Greece and other profligate euro members for the many years that it will take for the troubles to blow over. And if Greece has to refinance more and more of its debt in the coming months, the crisis could intensify.
“It’s a black eye for the euro zone if one of their members has to turn to the I.M.F. for support,” Randall W. Stone, a political scientist at the University of Rochester, said. “That’s embarrassing. On the other hand, it’s potentially more damaging to create a precedent for the rich European countries to bail out the poorer ones when they get into financial trouble.”
Greece’s game of brinkmanship may well bring the I.M.F. to its doorstep. “I think the I.M.F. is going to get called in before the end of the day,” Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard economist and former I.M.F. chief economist, said in a phone interview from Germany. “Greece’s austerity plan is like a New Year’s resolution. It’s not going to be easy to enforce.”
– For Greek leaders facing wide civil unrest, including the unions’ occupation of the country’s finance ministry on Thursday, the threat of turning to the I.M.F. can serve useful ends.
– “People like to blame the I.M.F. for the policies they impose, but in many cases these are policies the governments know they have to push through,” said James Raymond Vreeland, a political scientist at Georgetown University. “They use the leverage of the I.M.F. so it’s a little more politically palatable.”
But even setting aside the symbolic implications, some experts believe that an I.M.F. bailout would deeply rattle the markets.
– Despite the reassuring bond sale on Thursday, investors could quickly drive up Greece’s borrowing costs if they come to believe an I.M.F. intervention is likely, said Michael L. Mussa, a former I.M.F. research director who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
– “The market is expecting other Europeans to do something,” Mr. Mussa said. “If that expectation is disappointed, I don’t see how they’re going to resolve the crisis.”
– The biggest challenge is in Germany, which has historically tended to enforce fiscal and economic rectitude on its neighbors. Many German taxpayers are vehemently opposed to paying for the profligacy of their free-spending neighbors in Greece and other southern European countries that let their deficits soar sky-high instead of taming them when times were good.
– At the same time, German banks also underwrite much of the Continent’s debt and exert considerable influence in domestic politics, according to Mark S. Copelovitch, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. Germany “doesn’t want its banking sector to go under because Greece has defaulted,” he said.
– Yet nightly broadcasts of widespread strikes in Greece, and accusations by some in Athens that Germany owes Greece for inadequate reparations paid out after the Second World War, have some Germans thinking that intervention by the I.M.F. may be worth the trouble.
– “In Germany, the public might favor an I.M.F. intervention if it reduced Greece’s reliance on German funds,” said Justin Vaïsse, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
– European power struggles are also at stake. Simon Johnson, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a former I.M.F. chief economist, said that Germany has long sought to have a German lead the European Central Bank, and an I.M.F. intervention could be seen as tarnishing Germany’s credibility.
– Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, views Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the I.M.F. leader and a former French finance minister, as a political rival, and would be loath to give him a perceived victory.
For weeks, the I.M.F. has tried to say as little as possible about Greece other than to state that it stands ready to help. Mr. Stone said that strategy seems the wisest for now. “The only thing worse than announcing an I.M.F. program is announcing that maybe you’re going to have one,” he said.