La crisi in Europa diventa “reale” con il forte aumento della disoccupazione
– Ultimi dati sulla disoccupazione nell’eurozona:
o Ottobre 2011, circa 16 294 000 i disoccupati dei 17 paesi dell’area dell’euro (+126 000), la cifra più alta dal 1995, inizio della registrazione dei dati,
o una cifra pari al totale della popolazione di Belgio e Irlanda.
– Questo dato oltre a misurare le sofferenze dei singoli lavoratori, indica anche la crescente difficoltà di uscire dalla crisi del debito:
o Maggiore disoccupazione = maggiori spese di previdenza sociale, = minori entrate fiscali; = freno alla crescita economica; = aumento del debito pubblico; = ansia degli investitori; = avvitamento della crisi del debito.
– L’OCSE ha chiesto ai leader europei di:
o Dare una forte spinta al fondo di salvataggio e di ricorrere ai fondi quasi illimitati della BCE;
o Ma Germania, Olanda e altri paesi forti sono contrari ad un maggior intervento della BCE.
Peggiora il calo del manifatturiero nella area dell’euro
– Calo accelerato del manifatturiero dell’eurozona a Novembre 2011, Il peggior tasso di calo di produzione e ordinativi dalla stretta creditizia del 2009;
o L’indice Markit (su 3000 imprese), sceso dal 47,1 di ott. al 46,4 di novembre; un indice sotto il 50 indica contrazione dell’attività.
o La produzione del manifatturiero è scesa del 2% al trimestre.
o La produzione della PMI tedesche al minimo degli ultimi 28 mesi, 47,9, quelle francesi al minimo di 29 mesi, 47,3;
o Quella della PMI italiana salita a 44, dal minimo mensile di 43,3.
– Anche in Cina primo calo del manifatturiero da quasi tre anni.
Diminuzione della produzione in generale in Asia ed Europa
Europe’s Crisis Gets Real as Unemployment Soars
– Wednesday’s publication of record unemployment figures is a pretty stark illustration of the economic impact Europe’s debt crisis is having–and raises the stakes still further for the politicians casting around for a solution.
– The figures beg the question of how much worse it can get. Some 16.294 million people in the 17-nation euro zone were out of work in October, the highest tally since records began in 1995 and more than the combined populations of Belgium and Ireland.
– In addition to the suffering of the individuals who have lost their job, the rise makes it harder still for governments to end the debt crisis. More unemployment means higher social security payments and lower tax receipts. Growth suffers, public borrowing rises, investors get anxious, and the debt crisis rolls on.
– Losing patience, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Monday called on Europe’s beleaguered leaders to take two big steps to end the crisis: making a big boost to its bailout fund and leaning on the near-unlimited funds available to the European Central Bank.
– Finance ministers in Brussels Tuesday took some action to boost the bailout fund–but the new size falls short of original plans and probably won’t be enough to satisfy investors that a lasting solution has been found.
– Getting the ECB more deeply involved would be an even bigger challenge, due to fierce resistance from Germany, the Netherlands and other strong economies who are concerned about inflation and the moral hazard of bailing out countries before they have reformed.
– These concerns are valid enough. But the 126,000 people who joined the end of the jobless queues in October will be wishing the politicians would get a move on.
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EUROPE NEWS
DECEMBER 1, 2011, 9:30 A.M. ET
LONDON—The euro zone’s manufacturing sector contracted at a faster rate in November, with production and new orders falling at the strongest rate since the height of the credit crunch in 2009, a monthly survey by Markit showed Thursday.
– Manufacturing activity in China shrank in November for the first time in nearly three years, while output elsewhere in Asia and in Europe also softened. Martin Essex has been looking at the data and how it affects global growth.
– The Markit final euro-zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, a gauge of activity in the sector based on a survey of about 3,000 firms, fell to a 28-month low of 46.4 in November from 47.1 in October. A reading below the neutral 50 level indicates a contraction in activity.
– "The latest survey is broadly consistent with manufacturing output falling at a quarterly rate of 2%, and a further decline in the survey’s new orders to inventory ratio suggests that production is likely to be cut at an even faster rate in December," Chris Williamson, the chief economist at Markit, said in a statement.
– The manufacturing PMI in Germany was confirmed at a 28-month low of 47.9 while in France it dropped to a 29-month low of 47.3, below the preliminary estimate of 47.6. However, the PMI in Italy rose unexpectedly to 44 from 43.3.
Write to Nicholas Winning at nick.winning@dowjones.com